Through analyzed and regressed the actual productive desulfurization data from the oversize blast furnace (5500 m 3 ) in north China, the relationship between the sulfur distribution parameters and the slag composition in actual production situation was investigated. As the slag and hot metal phases have their own balance sulfur content or sulfur partial pressure in gas phase, respectively, the non-equilibrium of sulfur among gas, slag, and metal phases leads to the transmission and distribution of sulfur. Combined with sulfur transmission reactions between gas, slag and metal phases, C/CO pairs equilibrium, and Wagner model, the measured sulfide capacity can be acquired using sulfur distribution ratio, sulfur activity coefficient, and oxygen activity in hot metal. Based on the theory of congregated electron phase, a new sulfide capacity prediction model (CEPM) has been developed, which has a good liner relationship with the measured sulfide capacity. Thus, using the burden structure for BF, the ironmaking slag composition can be obtained simply and can be used to reliably predict the ironmaking slag desulfurization ability a few hours later after charging under a certain temperature by CEPM.