We use computer simulations to investigate the amount of genetic variation for complex traits that can be revealed by single-SNP genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or regional heritability mapping (RHM) analyses based on full genome sequence data or SNP chips. We model a large population subject to mutation, recombination, selection, and drift, assuming a pleiotropic model of mutations sampled from a bivariate distribution of effects of mutations on a quantitative trait and fitness. The pleiotropic model investigated, in contrast to previous models, implies that common mutations of large effect are responsible for most of the genetic variation for quantitative traits, except when the trait is fitness itself. We show that GWAS applied to the full sequence increases the number of QTL detected by as much as 50% compared to the number found with SNP chips but only modestly increases the amount of additive genetic variance explained. Even with full sequence data, the total amount of additive variance explained is generally below 50%. Using RHM on the full sequence data, a slightly larger number of QTL are detected than by GWAS if the same probability threshold is assumed, but these QTL explain a slightly smaller amount of genetic variance. Our results also suggest that most of the missing heritability is due to the inability to detect variants of moderate effect (0.03-0.3 phenotypic SDs) segregating at substantial frequencies. Very rare variants, which are more difficult to detect by GWAS, are expected to contribute little genetic variation, so their eventual detection is less relevant for resolving the missing heritability problem.KEYWORDS quantitative trait variation; complex traits; missing heritability; fitness; additive genetic variance S TUDY of the nature of variation for quantitative traits, also known as complex traits, is one of the most active areas of research in genetics. This is particularly the case in human genetics because many common genetic diseases, including cancers, obesity, heart disease, and stroke, are complex traits controlled by many loci and influenced by multiple environmental factors. Large numbers of genetic loci influencing complex traits have been discovered using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) by associating putatively neutral SNPs with variation for the trait. For example, analysis of 160 complex disease phenotypes and quantitative traits has revealed associations with more than 2000 SNPs in humans (Visscher et al. 2012). A key general finding from GWAS is that the significantly associated SNPs account for only a small proportion of the trait's genetic variation, the so-called missing heritability problem (Manolio et al. 2009). For example, based on the resemblance between relatives, narrow-sense heritability for human height has been estimated to be as high as h 2 = 0.7-0.8 (Visscher 2008;Zaitlen et al. 2013), but the 679 variants identified in the latest GWAS meta-analysis of 79 studies analyzing more than 250,000 individuals accounted for only 16% of that her...