Complexity, computational modeling, and forecasting the future of threat management.

Abstract

Targeted violence is a complex problem in both the colloquial and scientific sense of the term. Complexity is a scientific theory that has been used to describe the interactions of living and social systems where patterns and structure can emerge from chaotic and disorganized systems. It is intended to create a framework to describe and solve problems that cannot be resolved with simple variables and comparative statistics (Weaver, 1948). Complexity is a model that seems well suited to the problem of targeted and mass violence, and it is a model that lends itself to the field of computational social science (CSS) for the purposes of description and analysis. Although our understanding of violence has evolved over time, prediction and classification remain challenging. Perhaps, as argued in the featured articles in this issue and in this editorial, CSS can provide needed tools to bring threat management to a new era in understanding and application in understanding and preventing targeted violence.