Complexity in estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall

Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

“…Zhang et al (2017) addressed this limitation in BT and QR by removing the seasonality from the temperature data. However, the temperature (SAT and DPT) increase can be dominated by seasonal trends.…”

“…For instance, conditioning extreme precipitation on daily mean temperature does not consider seasonality in air temperature (Zhang et al, 2017). Therefore, Zhang et al (2017) argue that conditioning extreme precipitation on seasonal SAT/DPT (Zhang et al, 2017, method; ZM hereafter) provides a better method to estimate the scaling (Mukherjee et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2017). Therefore, Zhang et al (2017) argue that conditioning extreme precipitation on seasonal SAT/DPT (Zhang et al, 2017, method; ZM hereafter) provides a better method to estimate the scaling (Mukherjee et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2017).…”

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

“…Extreme precipitation occurs when Mediterranean moisture is advected and lifted at the southern slopes of the Alps. Thus the moisture is not locally sourced, and local temperatures might be less indicative of the sensitivity (Zhang et al 2017). Also, the cooling effect of large scale events might play a role here (Bao et al 2017), as well as the orographic amplification of precipitation and generally cooler temperatures in the Alpine environment.…”

“…Scaling factors conditioned on the local absolute temperatures are therefore always governed by the annual cycle, and hence are of limited suitability to assess the effect of global warming on extreme precipitation intensities (see Zhang et al 2017 for a more detailed discussion). Still, it is highly worthwhile to look at conditional SFs in order to quantify the extent to which the annual cycle and weather patterns govern the local temperature-scaling relationship and to assess under which temperature conditions intense rainfall is most likely to occur.…”

“…Some analyze a single rain gauge (Formayer and Fritz 2016), others assess regional (e.g., Molnar et al 2015;, or global station networks (e.g., Wang et al 2017;O'Gorman 2015). Zhang et al (2017) differentiate studies that detect long-term trends in precipitation intensities with global warming (e.g., Barbero et al 2017), and studies that establish regional scaling relationships based on conditional quantiles (e.g., . In the first case, thermodynamic effects and the Earth's energy budget are considered to be the dominant factors.…”