Complexity Theories of Cities: Implications to Urban Planning

Portugali, Juval

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-24544-2_13

Cited by 97 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The prediction of future land change in empirical models is often based on the interpretation and input of several of these factors to create a probability map which indicates the suitability of a location for a certain land use relative to the suitability of other locations (Poelmans & Van Rompaey, 2010). However megacities represent the accumulation of successive layers of collective activity and desires, and this involves macro-economic transformations and policy changes (Portugali et al, 2012). Moreover the underlying driving factors of long term growth are not constant over time and they cannot be fully captured by fixed mathematical relations.…”

Section: Issues In Megacity Spatial Expansion Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover the underlying driving factors of long term growth are not constant over time and they cannot be fully captured by fixed mathematical relations. Dynamic models are therefore necessary for any attempt to represent the long term spatial growth of megacities (Portugali et al, 2012). Unfortunately creating such models is a complex task, particularly when considering cities in regions affected by numerous unpredictable events, such as dramatic economic crises, changes in planning policies, natural disasters, wars, terrorism, and other issues that may profoundly modify the evolution of urban areas (Barredo & Demicheli, 2003).…”

Section: Issues In Megacity Spatial Expansion Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Expansion of Densely Inhabited Districts in a Megacity - Case of Tokyo

Mberego

2017

IRSPSD International

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Abstract:Understanding the patterns of human concentrations within megacities is of fundamental importance to our understanding of megacity dynamics, and for megacity management and policy making. This study presents an updated investigation of the historical expansion of densely inhabited districts (DIDs) in the world's largest megacity, Tokyo. Long-term DID data (1960-2010 at 5-year intervals were analyzed in a geographic information systems framework.Results show that Tokyo completed rapid growth phase and is now in a maturity phase with minimal growth. Extension was the main form of expansion, although fragmented growth in the form of patches was also noted. The rate of DID expansion was strongly related to economic trends. However the direction and shape of expansion was influenced much by geographic and policy related factors. West and southern directions had earlier and greater expansion, likely related to the historical Tōkaidō corridor. Over 95% of all DIDs are located within 4km distance from a railway line. The coastline and distance from the CBD had some modifying influence. During the course of expansion, there was substantial decrease of population density in the inner wards. Future trends in Tokyo's DIDs will be greatly influenced by aging demographic trends. This study therefore shows that megacity spatial expansion is a dynamic process influenced by various processes whose roles vary over time.

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Section: Issues In Megacity Spatial Expansion Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Issues In Megacity Spatial Expansion Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Expansion of Densely Inhabited Districts in a Megacity - Case of Tokyo

Mberego

2017

IRSPSD International

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“…For the urban environment to be open to change a systems approach is helpful. Complex, self-organising, adaptive systems, as cities are seen (Andersson 2012;Ikeda 2004;Bettencourt 2013Bettencourt , 2015Batty 2013;Portugali 2000;Webster and Lai 2003;Roggema 2012a;De Roo et al 2012;Portugali et al 2012), have the capability to adapt to change. Self-organisation of the city, or the society of the city can be 'planned' by setting rules about the relation between built elements, being buildings, linear elements or district elements.…”

Section: Indulging the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

The future of sustainable urbanism: a redefinition

Roggema

2016

City Territ Archit

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In this article the future of sustainable urbanism is discussed. In current times a complex of uncertainties demands sustainable environments. Three uncertainties are distinguished. Firstly, the city needs to deal with uncertain developments, such as the impacts of climate change. Secondly, urban environments are the place where deliberate uncertainties, such as the generation of renewable energy and other sustainability transitions must find a place. The third form of uncertainty is the increased exposure of urban populations to the impacts of a spectrum of uncertain developments, climate impacts. This 'Triple-U problem' urges the design of urban areas to be sustainable. Sustainability has long been a part of urbanism, however, in completely different ways in different periods in history. When learning from the past, the analysis of sustainable urbanism in seven periods brings key elements to the fore. Sustainable urbanism has evolved, but key characteristics of each period may and can still be used to design sustainable cities. Based on these characteristics two strategies, and a potential third one, are identified: to fix the future, to indulge the future, and to create anti-fragile urban environments. Where fixing the future implies the reparation of environmental qualities and closing environmental flows within the urban boundaries, indulging the future focuses on the creation of sufficient space to accommodate the possible spatial impacts of unprecedented events and change. Anti-fragility supports the city in raising its resilience under threat of uncertain impacts. The article ends with a proposed renewed definition of sustainable urbanism.

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“…Indeed, it is widely accepted that cities are one of the greatest examples of complex systems because they generate an intricate and dynamic network of societal, economic, environmental and political relationships [7,8]. That is why complexity has been a recurrent handicap for urban planners because it makes difficult urban analysis and policy making.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Contemporary Citiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to Incorporate Urban Complexity, Diversity and Intelligence into Smart Cities Initiatives

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Under the term "Smart City", numerous technology-based initiatives are emerging to help cities face contemporary challenges while the concept itself is evolving towards a more holistic approach. Nevertheless, the capability of smart initiatives to provide an integrated vision of our cities is still very limited. Eventually, many of these initiatives fail to understand the complexity, diversity and intelligence that characterize contemporary cities. The purpose of this paper is to display an urban functional system, capable of interpreting the city in a more holistic way and of facilitating effective involvement of local stakeholders in the planning process of SCs initiatives.

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Complexity Theories of Cities: Implications to Urban Planning

Cited by 97 publications

References 11 publications

The Expansion of Densely Inhabited Districts in a Megacity - Case of Tokyo

The Expansion of Densely Inhabited Districts in a Megacity - Case of Tokyo

The future of sustainable urbanism: a redefinition

How to Incorporate Urban Complexity, Diversity and Intelligence into Smart Cities Initiatives

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