Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation

Bradley, Brendon; Lee, Dominic S.

doi:10.1002/eqe.937

Cited by 20 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The consideration of component correlations in seismic loss estimation is complicated by a lack of empirical data for their determination and mathematical methodologies for their consideration. Further details on the consideration of correlations in such a framework as that presented here can be found in Bradley and Lee [21]. As it is not the focus in the present study only the upper and lower bound assumptions of perfect and no correlations have been considered herein.…”

Section: Mathematical Basis Of Loss Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of spatially distributed seismic demands in specific structures: Structural response to loss estimation

Bradley

Dhakal

MacRae

et al. 2009

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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A companion paper has investigated the effects of intensity measure (IM) selection in the prediction of spatially distributed response in a multi-degree-of-freedom structure. This paper extends from structural response prediction to performance assessment metrics such as: probability of structural collapse; probability of exceeding a specified level of demand or direct repair cost; and the distribution of direct repair loss for a given level of ground motion. In addition, a method is proposed to account for the effect of varying seismological properties of ground motions on seismic demand that does not require different ground motion records to be used for each intensity level. Results illustrate that the conventional IM, spectral displacement at the first mode, S de (T 1 ), produces higher risk estimates than alternative velocity-based IM's, namely spectrum intensity, SI, and peak ground velocity, PGV, because of its high uncertainty in ground motion prediction and poor efficiency in predicting peak acceleration demands.

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Section: Mathematical Basis Of Loss Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of spatially distributed seismic demands in specific structures: Structural response to loss estimation

Bradley

Dhakal

MacRae

et al. 2009

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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“…Fig. 2 shows the expected loss given intensity for a typical NZ bridge [21]; ground motion hazard curve for Wellington, New Zealand [20]; and the resulting integrand of the expected annual loss. It can be seen that while it may be relatively simple to determine a subregion of integration from inspection, trying to determine a sub-region within a computational algorithm will require the use of some optimisation algorithm (or similar) to determine where the values of the integrand are or are not significant.…”

Section: Region Of Integrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficient evaluation of performance-based earthquake engineering equations

Bradley¹,

Lee²,

Broughton³

et al. 2009

Structural Safety

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In this paper attention is given to the efficient numerical evaluation of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering framework equations. In particular, potential problems in determining an adequate yet efficient region of integration are discussed. An algorithm called "Magnitude-oriented Adaptive Quadrature" (MAQ) is developed, which is an integration algorithm with both locally and globally adaptive capabilities. MAQ allows efficient integration over the entire integration domain and requires only an error tolerance and maximum number of function evaluations to be specified. The advantages of utilizing the MAQ algorithm over other conventional integration methods such as Romberg integration and conventional adaptive quadrature are illustrated for the numerical computation of (1) expected annual loss; and (2) annual rate of collapse. It is shown that for determination of the expected annual loss a 4.5-to 8.8-fold reduction in the computational demand is obtained using MAQ compared to conventional integration methods. For annual rate of collapse the computational demand reductions range from 30% to two-fold. The computational reductions are a function of the error tolerance prescribed, with greater computational reductions as stricter tolerances are enforced. 2 KEYWORDSNumerical integration; performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE); magnitudeoriented adaptive quadrature; Seismic loss estimation; Romberg Integration.

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“…obtained based on the statistical moments of the L|IM distributions obtained in the previous section and using the common assumption of lognormality for L|IM [27,29] (which was verified for this particular case-study, but is omitted for brevity). Figure 19 illustrates the annual rate of exceeding various levels of downtime for the four different repair groups and for the total system.…”

Section: Loss Hazard Resultsmentioning

confidence: 60%

“…Equations (3) and (4)). Thus, after obtaining the statistical moments for all of the PG's using Equations (1) and (2), Monte Carlo simulation (with appropriate consideration of the correlation in the loss between multiple PG's [27]) was used to estimate the distribution of…”

Section: Loss Assessment Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of a bridge-foundation-soil system

Bradley¹,

Cubrinovski²,

Dhakal³

et al. 2010

Soil-Foundation-Structure Interaction

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This paper presents the probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of an actual bridge-foundation-soil system, the Fitzgerald Avenue twin bridges in Christchurch, New Zealand. A two-dimensional finite element model of the longitudinal direction of the system is modelled using advanced soil and structural constitutive models. Ground motions at multiple levels of intensity are selected based on the seismic hazard deaggregation at the site.Based on rigorous examination of several deterministic analyses, engineering demand parameters (EDP's) which capture the global and local demand and consequent damage to the bridge and foundation are determined. A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of the structure considering both direct repair and loss of functionality consequences was performed to holistically assess the seismic risk of the system. It was found that the non-horizontal stratification of the soils, liquefaction, and soilstructure interaction had pronounced effects on the seismic demand distribution of the bridge components, of which the north abutment piles and central pier were critical in the systems seismic performance. The consequences due to loss of functionality of the bridge during repair were significantly larger than the direct repair costs, with over a 2% in 50 year probability of the total loss exceeding twice the book-value of the structure. 2 KEYWORDSPerformance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE); soil-structure interaction (SSI); seismic loss estimation; downtime.

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Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Prediction of spatially distributed seismic demands in specific structures: Structural response to loss estimation

Prediction of spatially distributed seismic demands in specific structures: Structural response to loss estimation

Efficient evaluation of performance-based earthquake engineering equations

Probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of a bridge-foundation-soil system

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