Components of change in migration and destination-propensity rates for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas: 1935–1980

Abstract

This article focuses on components of change in out-migration and destination-propensity rates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. The results indicate that changes in subgroup-specific rates were the driving force behind the changing patterns between and within these two areas. Composition effects played a secondary role, mainly counteracting the negative impact of changing rates. Although the rate of change in out-migration from metropolitan areas has been reduced and out-migration from nonmetropolitan areas declined during the most recent period, the propensity to select metropolitan areas increased over the period studied. Finally, rate-specific changes vary by age and education, indicating a change in migration's impact on population composition at origin and destination.

The Baby Boom and Nonmetropolitan Population Change, 1975‐1990

“…Nonmetropolitan in-migration streams are decomposed into three components: the growth component (G), the age-mix component (AM), and the cohort shift (CS). Following the methodologies of Plane (1992;1993), Plane and Rogerson (1992), and Wilson (1983;1988), these formulae have been derived:…”

“…Upon retirement, individuals may elect to move to more mild climates or toward their children for support (McHugh, Hogan, and Happel 1995). Wilson (1988) demonstrates that as age increases, so too does the propensity to migrate to nonmetropolitan destinations (Wilson 1988). Therefore, on the micro scale, the baby boom will be progressing through the lifecourse with large numbers of their peers doing the same.…”

“…Academic literature and historical fiction are rich with examples highlighting relationships between economic change and population movements. Demographic events can further influence aggregate migration flows, and there is an expanding body of academic literature exploring how events such as the baby boom of the 1940s-1960s has shaped migration at national and regional scales (Wilson 1983;Plane and Rogerson 1991;Plane 1992;Plane 1993;Pandit 1997a;1997b;Nelson and Sewall 2003).…”

Rural gentrification and linked migration in the United States

“…The post-war baby boom is possibly the single most significant demographic event of the 20th century, and this event has left an indelible mark on the American landscape with new school construction in the 1960s and 70s to educate this cohort, rapid suburbanization to house their young families in the 80s and 90s, and today the proliferation of retirement communities as these 83 million individuals sit on the cusp of retirement. Wilson (1988) shows that individuals aged between 50 and 60 show a marked increase in their propensity to migrate to rural areas. With the baby boomers currently between the ages of 45 and 63 and many seeing their adult children leave home, there is tremendous potential for increased urban to rural migration.…”

Linking baby boomer and Hispanic migration streams into rural America – a multi‐scaled approach

“…In addition, the Rural Renaissance of the 1970s and the rural rebound of the 1990s have been empirically linked to positive migration shifts of the baby boomers (Nelson et al, 2004). Given that life course perspectives on migration are relatively stable (Warnes, 1992), it is likely that baby boomer migration into rural destinations will only increase in the coming years, as individuals in their 60s show the highest propensity to make urban to rural migrations (Wilson, 1988).…”