Comportamento Sazonal Da Exportação Brasileira De Celulose Para a China Entre 1997 E 2012

Soares, Philipe Ricardo Casemiro; Cardoso, Marcos Vinicius; Schirigatti, Elisangela Lobo; Almeida, Alexandre Nascimento de; Silva, João Carlos Garzel Leodoro da; Timofeiczyk, Romano

doi:10.5380/rf.v45i2.33007

Cited by 4 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The prices used here are those practiced in 2017 and maybe under seasonal effects since there was no teak price series available, and the occurrence of seasonality for some forest products has been evidenced by other authors (NOCE et al, 2005;SOARES et al, 2015;VALERIUS et al, 2022).…”

Section: Economical Analysismentioning

confidence: 93%

Economic Feasibility Analysis of a Forest-Livestock Integration System in Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

Ansolin

Timofeiczyk²,

Kamoi³

et al. 2022

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This study investigates the economic feasibility of a livestock-forest integration system between Nellore cattle and teak species implemented in Fazenda Bacaeri, in the municipality of Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The economic analysis was based on the dataset provided by the Embrapa Agrossilvipastoril and used to elaborate a cash flow, as well as on the following selected criteria, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Profitability Index, for a Minimum Attractive Rate of 4.15% annually. The risk analysis was also carried out using the Monte Carlo probabilistic method, considering seven variables, such as the clearcut and thinning wood price, lean cattle selling price, animal acquisition and forest harvesting costs, thinning and clearcutting yield. The calculated analyzed economic indexes are as follows R$ 4,083,307.77 NPV, 6.48% IRR and 21.36% PI, which indicates the economic feasibility of the studied integration system. The risk analysis shows that this is a low-risk project since the probability of NPV being negative was calculated as 14.4%. However, no matter how efficient the risk prediction tools are, producers must have technical assistance from trained professionals to adequately interpret and mitigate the risks. The studied forest-livestock integration system is economically feasible and low risk.

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Section: Economical Analysismentioning

confidence: 93%

Economic Feasibility Analysis of a Forest-Livestock Integration System in Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

Ansolin

Timofeiczyk²,

Kamoi³

et al. 2022

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“…To determine the seasonal variation of the quantity of Brazilian and Chilean conifer wood moldings imported by the United States, the seasonal index was calculated initially for the period of June 2011 to June 2017, according to Equation 1, proposed by Hoffmann (2006) and employed by Soares et al (2015), Cardoso et al (2013), andDreyer et al (2017), allowing us to see the variation of the quantity imported by the US market over the whole period of analysis, around its mean value.…”

Section: Seasonality Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, being aware of the importation and exportation behaviors is very important to set strategies, focus on obtaining or increasing competitive advantages and improve the commercialization of the product (SOARES et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the last few years, several studies were made to identify seasonality standards in exportations, importations, and in the price of Brazilian agribusiness products. Examples thereof are the studies of Lazzarotto and Fioravanço, 2013;Signor et al 2013;Marin, Cavalheiro, and Anschau, 2011. As for the seasonality subject, in the forest-based sector, the following studies can be highlighted: the studies of Cardoso et al (2013), in which the authors analyzed the price seasonality of the Brazilian cellulose shipped to the US market between 1997 and 2010, of Dreyer et al (2017), in which the authors studied the price seasonality of the Brazilian plywood exported to the United States between 2004 and 2015, and of Soares et al (2015), who analyzed the price seasonality of the Brazilian cellulose commercialized with China between 1997 and 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative Analysis of the Us Importation Seasonality of Wooden Moldings Made Out of Brazilian and Chilean Conifers

Valerius

Silva

Júnior

et al. 2022

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Conifer wood moldings are classified as high value-added wood products and are used for several purposes in civil construction. Brazil is the world’s leading exporter of this product and the United States are its main destination market. It is very important to analyze the behavior of such importations and exportations to set strategies to obtain or increase the competitive advantage and improve the commercialization of these products. The objective of this study was to analyze the US importation seasonality of conifer wood moldings from Brazil and Chile, the main competitor of the Brazilian product in the US market. To write this paper, monthly data of the quantity of US importations of Brazilian and Chilean moldings from the period of 2011 to 2017 were collected from the database of the United States Department of Agriculture/Foreign Agricultural Service. The methodology proposed by Hoffman (2006) was employed to calculate the seasonal and seasonality indexes. The results indicated that the US importation of conifer wood moldings, both from Brazil and Chile, have a seasonal behavior, with great variation of the seasonal index.

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“…Em estudos realizados por Oliveira, Pereira e Nascimento (2018) verificou-se expansão urbana, aumento da capitalização das comunidades, aumento populacional e maior oferta de emprego nas cidades onde as empresas instalaram suas indústrias. Soares et al (2015) enfatizaram a importância da realização de estudos sobre o preço da celulose, dado que essa informação auxilia na definição de estratégias de venda do produto para diferentes países importadores. Para tanto, os modelos Autorregressivos Integrados de Médias Móveis (ARIMA) são úteis para análise e previsão do preço da celulose, pois baseiam-se em valores passados e suas correlações para predizer os valores futuros JENKINS, 1970).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Previsão e interação dos preços da celulose brasileira nos mercados interno e externo

Reichert

Souza

2020

Ciênc. Florest.

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A produção e a exportação de celulose são componentes importantes da economia no país. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi prognosticar o preço nos mercados interno e externo da celulose brasileira e avaliar a interferência entre o preço médio da celulose vendida em atacado e o preço médio da celulose exportada pelo Brasil. O estudo utilizou dados oriundos do Informativo Florestal do Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA), coletados entre junho de 2008 a março de 2018. Os modelos Autorregressivos Integrados de Médias Móveis (ARIMA) foram utilizados para prognosticar o preço da celulose em atacado e exportada pelo Brasil e, para analisar a inter-relação dessas variáveis, foi aplicado modelo Vetor Autorregressivo (VAR). Observou-se que o preço da celulose em atacado e da celulose exportada sofrem oscilações em períodos semelhantes, devido à relação direta com a cotação do dólar e com as crises financeiras nos países importadores. O modelo de melhor acurácia para prognosticar o preço da celulose em atacado foi o modelo ARIMA (1,1,0) enquanto o modelo ARFIMAX (1, d*,0) obteve o melhor desempenho para prognosticar o preço da celulose exportada. A partir da modelagem VAR, verificou-se a existência de inter-relações entre as variáveis, as quais transpareceram o forte impacto do preço da celulose em atacado sobre o preço da celulose exportada pelo Brasil. Assim, as metodologias empregadas foram eficazes para prognosticar e analisar as inter-relações entre as variáveis.

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Comportamento Sazonal Da Exportação Brasileira De Celulose Para a China Entre 1997 E 2012

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Economic Feasibility Analysis of a Forest-Livestock Integration System in Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

Economic Feasibility Analysis of a Forest-Livestock Integration System in Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

Comparative Analysis of the Us Importation Seasonality of Wooden Moldings Made Out of Brazilian and Chilean Conifers

Previsão e interação dos preços da celulose brasileira nos mercados interno e externo

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