Composition and carbon dynamics of forests in northeastern North America in a future, warmer worldThis article is one of a selection of papers from NE Forests 2100: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada.

Mohan, Jacqueline E.; Cox, R. M.; Iverson, Louis R.

doi:10.1139/x08-185

Cited by 52 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 158 publications

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“…CO 2 , temperature or moisture), few response variables (growth or survival) and/or individuals small enough to be housed in chambers with suitable replication [4][5][6][7]. The price of this experimental control is a highly conditional view of how diverse forest communities will respond, missing the rich interactions between individuals of different species and sizes competing for resources locally, and the changing combination of growing season length, summer droughts and spatial variation in soils [8][9][10]. Recognition that such interactions are responsible for the diversity of natural ecosystems [11][12][13][14][15][16][17] casts doubt on the extrapolations that come from single factor experiments on seedlings of one or a few species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity

Clark

Bell

Kwit

et al. 2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models cannot accommodate the processes that determine future biodiversity. We demonstrate how individual-scale inference can be applied to the problem of anticipating vulnerability of species to climate. The approach places climate vulnerability in the context of competition for light and soil moisture. Sensitivities to climate and competition interactions aggregated from the individual tree scale provide estimates of which species are vulnerable to which variables in different habitats. Vulnerability is explored in terms of specific demographic responses (growth, fecundity and survival) and in terms of the synthetic response (the combination of demographic rates), termed climate tracking. These indices quantify risks for individuals in the context of their competitive environments. However, by aggregating in specific ways (over individuals, years, and other input variables), we provide ways to summarize and rank species in terms of their risks from climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity

Clark

Bell

Kwit

et al. 2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…Models that project the redistribution of tree species in response to climate change have often used a “climate envelope” approach, with species tracking shifts in key climate parameters including temperature and moisture over space and time (e.g., VEMAP Members 1995; Iverson and Prasad 1998; Iverson et al 2008; Mohan et al 2009). Climate-driven changes in the nitrogen cycle have not routinely been considered in vegetation redistribution models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil warming alters nitrogen cycling in a New England forest: implications for ecosystem function and structure

et al. 2011

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Global climate change is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystems in a variety of ways. Some of the more well-studied effects include the biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system that can either increase or decrease the atmospheric load of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. Less well-studied are the effects of climate change on the linkages between soil and plant processes. Here, we report the effects of soil warming on these linkages observed in a large field manipulation of a deciduous forest in southern New England, USA, where soil was continuously warmed 5°C above ambient for 7 years. Over this period, we have observed significant changes to the nitrogen cycle that have the potential to affect tree species composition in the long term. Since the start of the experiment, we have documented a 45% average annual increase in net nitrogen mineralization and a three-fold increase in nitrification such that in years 5 through 7, 25% of the nitrogen mineralized is then nitrified. The warming-induced increase of available nitrogen resulted in increases in the foliar nitrogen content and the relative growth rate of trees in the warmed area. Acer rubrum (red maple) trees have responded the most after 7 years of warming, with the greatest increases in both foliar nitrogen content and relative growth rates. Our study suggests that considering species-specific responses to increases in nitrogen availability and changes in nitrogen form is important in predicting future forest composition and feedbacks to the climate system.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00442-011-2133-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…This is in addition to ways in which climate change will directly affect productivity, and presumably fitness, through temperature and moisture effects on growth conditions and habitat suitability (e.g. Mohan et al 2009). …”

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confidence: 99%

Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity

Richardson

Black

Ciais

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

809

566

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We use eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 21 FLUXNET sites (153 site-years of data) to investigate relationships between phenology and productivity (in terms of both NEP and gross ecosystem photosynthesis, GEP) in temperate and boreal forests. Results are used to evaluate the plausibility of four different conceptual models. Phenological indicators were derived from the eddy covariance time series, and from remote sensing and models. We examine spatial patterns (across sites) and temporal patterns (across years); an important conclusion is that it is likely that neither of these accurately represents how productivity will respond to future phenological shifts resulting from ongoing climate change. In spring and autumn, increased GEP resulting from an 'extra' day tends to be offset by concurrent, but smaller, increases in ecosystem respiration, and thus the effect on NEP is still positive. Spring productivity anomalies 3227This journal is q 2010 The Royal Society on May 11, 2018 http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ Downloaded from appear to have carry-over effects that translate to productivity anomalies in the following autumn, but it is not clear that these result directly from phenological anomalies. Finally, the productivity of evergreen needleleaf forests is less sensitive to phenology than is productivity of deciduous broadleaf forests. This has implications for how climate change may drive shifts in competition within mixedspecies stands.

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Composition and carbon dynamics of forests in northeastern North America in a future, warmer worldThis article is one of a selection of papers from NE Forests 2100: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada.

Cited by 52 publications

References 158 publications

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity

Soil warming alters nitrogen cycling in a New England forest: implications for ecosystem function and structure

Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity

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