Comprehensive Assessment of the Sustainability of Coastal Systems of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

Abstract

This chapter deals with the method of comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of coastal infrastructure systems of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, which allows analyzing the socioeconomic development of the Arctic regions of Russia in order to ensure national security, as well as forecasting the environmental and socioeconomic situation in the coastal zone of the Russian Arctic using simulation prediction methods. To account for medium-and long-term climate, environmental, economic, legal, and geopolitical changes in the Arctic in assessing the sustainability of coastal infrastructure systems, it is proposed to use a comprehensive indicator system consisting of five-factor subsystems. As a result of the analysis of the possibilities of accounting for medium-and long-term complex changes, a dynamic model of strategic spatial planning of marine activities is implemented in the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of coastal infrastructure systems. By this model, values of the indicator were received for each of the factors of stability and the complex integral index of sustainability of coastal infrastructure systems of Russian Arctic for modern, historical, and future periods.