Comprehensive health risk analysis of heavy metal pollution using water quality indices and Monte Carlo simulation in R software

Abstract

Rapid urbanization, population growth, agricultural practices, and industrial activities have led to widespread groundwater contamination. This study evaluated heavy metal contamination in residential drinking water in Shiraz, Iran (2021). The analysis involved 80 groundwater samples collected across wet and dry seasons. Water quality was comprehensively assessed using several indices, including the heavy metals evaluation index (HEI), heavy metal pollution index (HPI), contamination degree (CD), and metal index (MI). Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessments were conducted using deterministic and probabilistic approaches for exposed populations. In the non-carcinogenic risk assessment, the chronic daily intake (CDI), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI) are employed. The precision of risk assessment was bolstered through the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation, executed using the R software platform. Based on the results, in both wet and dry seasons, Zinc (Zn) consistently demonstrates the highest mean concentration, followed by Manganese (Mn) and Chromium (Cr). During the wet and dry seasons, 25% and 40% of the regions exhibited high CD, respectively. According to non-carcinogenic risk assessment, Cr presents the highest CDI and HQ in children and adults, followed by Mn, As and HI values, indicating elevated risk for children. The highest carcinogenic risk was for Cr in adults, while the lowest was for Cd in children. The sensitivity analysis found that heavy metal concentration and ingestion rate significantly impact both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. These findings provide critical insights for shaping policy and allocating resources towards effectively managing heavy metal contamination in residential drinking water.

Assessment of Essential and Potentially Toxic Elements in Water and Sediment and the Tissues of Sciaena deliciosa (Tschudi, 1846) from the Coast of Callao Bay, Peru

“…The application of water quality indices revealed a substantial degradation in overall water quality due to the elevated presence of these metals. The innovative Monte Carlo simulation approach allowed for a more accurate assessment of health risks, considering the uncertainty associated with the data [ 75 ]. The results of this analysis revealed possible scenarios of human exposure to heavy metals and highlighted the areas of greatest concern, hence the critical need for effective interventions and regulations to mitigate heavy metal pollution and protect water quality.…”

Assessing heavy metal and physiochemical pollution load of Danro River and its management using floating bed remediation

“…For calibrating instruments to obtain reliable results, bank samples were prepared from their stock solutions for each heavy metal parameter. The samples were analysed three times and instrumental calibration was done with drift samples for every 5 samples to ensure accuracy and efficiency for all metal analyses 73 . The reference materials provided by the American Public Health Association (APHA) were strictly followed.…”

New approach into human health risk assessment associated with heavy metals in surface water and groundwater using Monte Carlo Method

“…The global concern regarding the presence of heavy metals in the environment has significantly grown due to their potential negative impacts on human health. These metals are well-known toxins that can cause organ damage and exhibit teratogenic and carcinogenic effects 6 , 7 . Groundwater contamination with heavy metals has been linked to severe health implications, including kidney damage, degenerative neurological conditions, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and cancer 8 , 9 .…”