We present a probabilistic (frequentistic) model of trust with efficient Bayesian updating procedures and support of hierarchically structured systems. Trust is highly influenced on information gathered from different sources, like newspaper or scientific reports on the security or vulnerability of computer systems. Assuming text-mining and incident documentation facilities available that provide us with news relevant to a given system, we show how to compile this experience into a stochastic model of trust. In particular, our models admits efficient analysis towards forecasting of possible future issues and the determination of worst-case scenarios for a given security system. We empirically evaluate the sensitivity of the our trust measure based on simulations using a prototype implementation, which closely matches the natural way in which trust is established: it takes a considerably larger lot of positive incidents to outweigh a negative experience. Our model indeed confirms such imbalance. Moreover, as more and more information is going into the trust model, a change of trust in either direction requires an amount of positive or negative experience that almost equals the so-far recorded history. We believe that these effects make the trust model a reasonable choice to resemble the human valuation of trust, while being funded on statistical grounds to be compatible with quantitative or qualitative enterprise risk management.
Index Termstrust modelling, IT incident management, security management, knowledge management, risk management, risk forecasting, bayesian learning, system security, information security I. INTRODUCTION Trust is a notoriously vague term, which is roughly understood as the expectation that the performance of a system adheres to its specification, meaning no deviations from the prescribed behavior whatsoever. Alternatively, trust can also mean expecting something not to happen at all, particularly if we express the belief in the intractability of some computational problem. This kind of trust is the fundament of most modern cryptographic primitives today, and justified on empirical grounds and experience.Nevertheless, due to the diversity of applications and their inherent differences in nature, trust is hard to formalize in a general setting, and up to now no commonly accepted definition appeared anywhere. In this work, we propose a very simplistic (as frequentistic) understanding of trust that compiles the experience made with a system into a numerical value reflecting the degree of trust. Updating this model shall be simple in the sense that new experience should directly find its way into the value so as to reach a more and more mature and reliable trust measure.Measuring and forecasting enterprise security risk is often a matter of confidence in the existing security systems, and especially when it comes to liability issues, as for example insurances strongly rely on hypothesis regarding the quality of protection of the insurance's object. It is experience that can either strengthen or...