Computational Intelligence for Studying Sustainability Challenges: Tools and Methods for Dealing With Deep Uncertainty and Complexity

Molina-Pérez, Edmundo; Esquivel-Flores, Oscar A.; Zamora-Maldonado, Hilda Consuelo

doi:10.3389/frobt.2020.00111

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Using RDM's vulnerability analysis techniques, we evaluate strategies under an array of future conditions and assumptions to understand the potential range of outcomes and conditions that lead strategies to meet or fail to meet decarbonization and economic goals. This methodology has had success in Latin America not only for decarbonization planning (Groves et al, 2020;Quirós-Tortós et al, 2021, Benavides et al, 2021Arguello et al, 2022), but also for resilient water and transport planning in the face of climate uncertainties (Kalra et al, 2015;Groves et al, 2021;Molina-Perez et al, 2019;Olaya et al, 2020), and global sustainability policies (Lempert et al, 2003;Molina-Perez et al, 2020).…”

Section: Approach To Assessing Emissions Costs and Benefitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Kalra,

Molina-Pérez,

Syme

et al. 2023

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Are development and decarbonization conflicting or complementary goals? In this report, we explore how Latin America and the Caribbean can improve socioeconomic and development outcomes while also reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, we introduce SiSePuede, an open source decarbonization modeling toolkit that evaluates decarbonization actions costs, benefits, and emissions reductions across the economy. We find that maximizing actions could achieve net-zero emissions in the region before 2050 and net $2.7 trillion in benefits compared to more traditional development. Benefits include massive fuel cost savings; avoided costs from reduced air pollution, congestion, and car crashes; and the value of ecosystem services from forests. Although there are many paths to net-zero emissions, three actions are critical: producing electricity with renewables, electrifying transport, and protecting and restoring forests by halting deforestation and shifting food-production patterns. Economy-wide strategies that implement these actions at scale can reduce emissions dramatically and net enormous benefits to the region even amid deep uncertainties, with a median of $1 trillion in net benefits across all scenarios. These benefits are unevenly distributed across sectors and actors, and across time, so realizing them and ensuring a just transition to net zero requires governments to overcome important financing, regulatory, infrastructure, and other barriers. Each country must tailor its own strategy to address development and emissions goals based on local priorities, capabilities, resources, and technical capacity. SiSePuede provides a robust analytical foundation to support these efforts.

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Section: Approach To Assessing Emissions Costs and Benefitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Kalra,

Molina-Pérez,

Syme

et al. 2023

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“…Recent progress in cognitive science and computational intelligence offers an opportunity to develop an integrated theoretical framework to study the interaction of CITs with human decision-makers in high-stakes decision contexts. For example, CITs can improve the decision-making process in crises providing decision-makers with new data, enabling quick estimation of likely consequences in a broader range of circumstances, and facilitating the identification of key decision trade-offs [ 4 ]. However, if CITs are implemented in a way that overwhelms users with excessive detail and complexity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive modeling for understanding interactions between people and decision support tools in complex and uncertain environments: A study protocol

Molina,

Molina-Perez,

Sobrino

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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Background Recent advances in Computational Intelligence Tools and the escalating need for decision-making in the face of complex and uncertain phenomena like pandemics, climate change, and geopolitics necessitate understanding the interaction between these tools and human behavior. It is crucial to efficiently utilize the decision-makers cognitive resources in addressing specific problems. Methods The main goal of this present protocol is to describe the effect that CITs (Computational Intelligence Tools) have on decisions made during complex and uncertain situations. It is an exploratory study with a mixed methodology. Solomon’s group experiment design includes a narrative analysis of cognitive features such as integrative complexity (IC), cognitive flexibility (CF), and fluid intelligence (FI). Additionally, measures of neural activity (NA), physiological measures (PM), and eye-tracking data (ET) will be collected during the experimental session to examine the marginal impact of these processes on decision outcomes (DO) and their relation to CIT capabilities. To achieve this objective, 120 undergraduate and graduate students involved in decision-making will participate as subjects. The approximate duration of the study will be 2 years. Strict adherence to the relevant ethical considerations will be maintained during the performance of the experimental tasks. Discussion The study will provide valuable information on CITs’ effect on decision-making under complex and uncertain contexts. This will help to better understand the link between technology and human behavior, which has important implications. CIT designers can use future results and at the same time, it will be possible to understand cognitive, behavioral, physiological processes, and even the subjective assessment of individuals when they use technological tools to solve a problem.

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Recent trends in computational intelligence for educational big data analysis

Ikegwu,

Nweke,

Anikwe

2023

Iran J Comput Sci

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Computational Intelligence for Studying Sustainability Challenges: Tools and Methods for Dealing With Deep Uncertainty and Complexity

Cited by 6 publications

References 37 publications

The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cognitive modeling for understanding interactions between people and decision support tools in complex and uncertain environments: A study protocol

Recent trends in computational intelligence for educational big data analysis

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