2012
DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2011.11.060
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Computational Modeling of Pancreatic Cancer Reveals Kinetics of Metastasis Suggesting Optimum Treatment Strategies

Abstract: SUMMARY Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death, largely due to metastatic dissemination. We investigated pancreatic cancer progression by utilizing a mathematical framework of metastasis formation together with comprehensive data of 228 patients, 101 of whom had autopsies. We found that pancreatic cancer growth is initially exponential. After estimating the rates of pancreatic cancer growth and dissemination, we determined that patients likely harbor metastases at diagnosis and predicted … Show more

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Cited by 374 publications
(354 citation statements)
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References 46 publications
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“…The authors studied tumor size and growth kinetics and found that a consideration of both parameters offers an opportunity to optimize the timing of therapy. This results of this study using a complex mathematical model supports the notion that most patients harbor metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis [13]. This may not be a surprise to clinicians who treat this disease on a regular basis, but the fact that the outcome of the model predicts what we know clinically is extremely promising for future development of more sophisticated computational models.…”
Section: The Diffusion-proliferation Modelsupporting
confidence: 76%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…The authors studied tumor size and growth kinetics and found that a consideration of both parameters offers an opportunity to optimize the timing of therapy. This results of this study using a complex mathematical model supports the notion that most patients harbor metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis [13]. This may not be a surprise to clinicians who treat this disease on a regular basis, but the fact that the outcome of the model predicts what we know clinically is extremely promising for future development of more sophisticated computational models.…”
Section: The Diffusion-proliferation Modelsupporting
confidence: 76%
“…The investigators review findings which support the notion that metastasis is a late event in the clonal evolution of pancreatic cancer [13]. By using data from patients who died of pancreatic cancer, with tumors measured at multiple time points, the study shows that an exponential growth model more accurately fits (median R 2 =0.63) the clinical growth pattern than a linear growth model.…”
Section: The Diffusion-proliferation Modelmentioning
confidence: 95%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…This model revealed that all cases are expected to harbor metastasis‐enabled cells in the primary tumor at the time of diagnosis. Interestingly, a case with the primary tumor of 10 mm has a probability of 28% of harboring metastases at diagnosis; as the primary tumor size increases to 20 mm and 30 mm, the risk of harboring metastases increases to 73 and 94%, respectively 13. These results suggest that PC of ≤10 mm with a low potential of metastasis and a favorable prognosis may be defined as ‘early PC’.…”
Section: Ts1a As ‘Early Pancreatic Cancer’mentioning
confidence: 94%
“…2 Ultimately, these patients also succumb to metastatic or recurrent PDA, suggesting that microscopic dissemination is an early hallmark of the disease. 3 Against this relentlessly challenging clinical backdrop, substantial progress has been made toward defining the genetic alterations that contribute to pancreatic cancer initiation and progression. Oncogenic Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) mutations are found in approximately 95% of pancreatic cancer patients and function as an initiating event that is further compounded by additional mutations or loss of tumor suppressor genes such as tumor protein p53 (TP53) and SMAD family member 4 (SMAD4).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%