Concentrated lunar resources: imminent implications for governance and justice

Abstract

Numerous missions planned for the next decade are likely to target a handful of small sites of interest on the Moon's surface, creating risks of crowding and interference at these locations. The Moon presents finite and scarce areas with rare topography or concentrations of resources of special value. Locations of interest to science, notably for astronomy, include the Peaks of Eternal Light, the coldest of the cold traps and smooth areas on the far side. Regions richest in physical resources could also be uniquely suited to settlement and commerce. Such sites of interest are both few and small. Typically, there are fewer than ten key sites of each type, each site spanning a few kilometres across. We survey the implications for different kinds of mission and find that the diverse actors pursuing incompatible ends at these sites could soon crowd and interfere with each other, leaving almost all actors worse off. Without proactive measures to prevent these outcomes, lunar actors are likely to experience significant losses of opportunity. We highlight the legal, policy and ethical ramifications. Insights from research on comparable sites on Earth present a path toward managing lunar crowding and interference grounded in ethical and practical near-term considerations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Astronomy from the Moon: the next decades'.

Carbon Dioxide Cold Traps on the Moon

“…For in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), CO 2 can serve as a source of carbon for the production of steel, hydrocarbons (especially rocket fuel), and biological materials (Cannon, 2021). The fact that this resource is highly concentrated geographically (Figure 2) has implications for the governance of the lunar surface (Elvis et al, 2016(Elvis et al, , 2021. Moreover, the interaction of carbon with galactic cosmic rays can produce organic compounds.…”

What Should We Do with Our Moon?: Ethics and Policy for Establishing International Multiuse Lunar Land Reserves

“…The ecologically sustainable business model required in these zones, grounded in environmental impact assessments, may inhibit a lunar industrial version of overfishing. Or, portrayed in another light, surprisingly quickly, lunar commercial sites could experience competitive overcrowding that harms everyone involved [53], and the delimited and zoned reserves of this proposal can help to ameliorate such clashes.…”

“…As Elvis et al state, "Now is an appropriate time to begin developing a governance framework [for the moon] …. Efforts at managing forthcoming disputes are most likely to succeed if they are undertaken before vested interests gain too firm a foothold" [53]. Scientists in the future will want to understand the human impact on the moon, and establishing control samples before humans return to the moon will help to supply them with outstanding historical snapshots of landscape constitution and health.…”

Potential Future Alternative Resources for Rare Earth Elements: Opportunities and Challenges

“…The path is now clear for those eight nations -Australia, Canada, Japan, Luxembourg, Italy, the UK, the UAE, and the U.S. -to participate in NASA's Artemis program of crewed lunar exploration which aims to establish a sustainable human presence on and around the moon by the end of the decade. In addition, several missions planned for the exploration of the Moon's surface in search of REE and other valuable minerals by countries such as the USA, China, India, Japan, and Russia [154].…”