Conception of Oil Spill Trajectory Modelling: Karlskrona Seaport Area as an Investigative Example

The purpose of this study is to present and apply an innovative technique to model environmental consequences of shipping accidents in relations to events initiating those accidents. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to model shipping accidents and chemical release consequences within the world’s sea and ocean waters. The model was created based on the previously designed novel general probabilistic approach to critical infrastructure accident consequences, including three models: the process of initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of environmental threats coming from released chemicals that are a result of initiating events, and the process of environmental degradation stemming from environmental threats. It is a new approach that has never been proposed and applied before. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used under the assumption of the semi-Markov model of these three processes. A procedure for the realization and generation of this process and evaluation of its characteristics is proposed and applied in the preparation of the C# program. Using this program, the processes’ characteristics are predicted for a specific sea area. Namely, for the considered processes, the limit values of transient probabilities between the states and the mean values of total sojourn times at the particular states for the fixed time are determined. The results obtained can be used practically by maritime practitioners involved in making decisions related to the safety of maritime transport and to mitigation actions concerned with maritime accidents.

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation Procedures For Processes' Characteris...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Shipping Accidents Consequences Assessment

Bogalecka

Dąbrowska

2023

“…An important issue in the implementation of the action of removing and stopping the spill is to determine precisely the shape and direction of oil spread [1,2,6,8,11,33,[35][36][37]. To do this, author proposed their own written software based on modified and developed mathematical models [18,[38][39][40] for predicting the horizontal spill movement and spreading in changing hydro-meteorological conditions through determining the oil spill domain composed of changing in time its surface elliptical sub-domains. Thus, the simple model of a surface oil slick as an ellipse is driven in the paper by a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times.…”

Section: Decadesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Dąbrowska

2023

The paper deals with an important issue related to the identification, modelling, and prediction of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems of the Baltic Sea caused by anthropopressure. Water ecosystems are in danger nowadays because of the negative influence of chemical releases in seas, oceans, or inland waters. The crucial issue is to prevent the oil spills and mitigate their consequences. Thus, there is a need for methods capable of reducing the water pollution and enhancing the effectiveness of port and marine environment preservation. The challenge in implementing actions to remove and prevent horizontal oil discharge lies in accurately determining its shape and direction of oil spreading. The author employed a self-designed software utilizing modified and developed mathematical probabilistic models to forecast the movement and dispersion of an oil spill in diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. This involved determining the trajectory and movement of a spill domain, which consists of elliptical sub-domains undergoing temporal changes. The research results obtained are the initial results in the oil spill simulation problem. This approach represents an expanded and innovative method for determining the spill domain and tracking its movement, applicable to oceans and seas worldwide. It expands upon the methodologies firstly discussed, thereby broadening the range of available techniques in this field. A simple model of an oil spill trajectory simulation and a surface oil slick as an ellipse is illustrated using a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times. The author proposes a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the extent of an oil spill in an aquatic ecosystem, taking into account the influence of varying hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model is defined to capture the dynamics of these conditions within the spill area and develop an enhanced algorithm for predicting changes in the shape and movement of the spill domain under changing these conditions. By applying the algorithm, a simulation is conducted to provide short-term prediction of the oil discharge trajectory in a selected Baltic Sea waterway. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the process of changing conditions, uniformly tested joint datasets from the open sea water area were incorporated. Finally, the potential future prospects and directions for further research in this field are discussed.

“…In this paper, a model of oil slick horizontal movement and dispersion in diverse hydrometeorological conditions is presented and self-written software is proposed, expanding my previous works [11][12][13] by considering variations in oil layer thickness over time. The primary focus of this study is to bridge a gap in our understanding by comprehensively exploring how changing environmental conditions and oil thickness interact to influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Oil Slick Dispersion and Horizontal Movement at Bornholm Basin in Baltic Sea

Dąbrowska

2024

This paper presents an original approach to predicting oil slick movement and dispersion at the water surface. Special emphasis is placed on the impact of evolving hydro-meteorological conditions and the thickness of the oil spill layer. The main gap addressed by this study lies in the need for a comprehensive understanding of how changing environmental conditions and oil thickness interact to influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks. By focusing on this aspect, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of oil spill behaviour, enhancing the ability to predict and mitigate the environmental impacts of such incidents. Self-designed software was applied to develop and modify previously established mathematical probabilistic models for predicting changes in the shape of the oil trajectory. First, a semi-Markov model of the process is constructed, and the oil thickness is analysed at the sea surface over time. Next, a stochastic-based procedure to forecast the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick in diverse hydro-meteorological conditions considering a varying oil layer thickness is presented. This involves determining the trajectory and movement of a slick domain, which consists of an elliptical combination of domains undergoing temporal changes. By applying the procedure and program, a short-term forecast of the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick provided its trajectory at the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea within two days. The research results obtained are preliminary prediction results, although the approach considered in this paper can help responders understand the scope of the problem and mitigate the effects of environmental damage if the oil discharge reaches sensitive ecosystems. Finally, further perspectives of this research are given.