To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort analysis. Cohort effects were found for males and females, suggesting that younger generations of Blacks are at higher risk. If younger cohorts carry their increased suicide risk into later life, then the recent decline in Black suicide rates will be reversed.The results of the current study are only interpretable in terms of group-level characteristics and population suicide rates and not individual-level characteristics. The possible explanation and the implications for prevention and future research are discussed.
KeywordsBlacks; suicide; trends; cohort effects; APC analysis In recent years, suicide has emerged as a crucial health issue for Blacks, particularly among youth (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 1998; Institute of Medicine, 2002; U.S. Public Health Service, 2000). For the purposes of this article, "Black" is used as a label for Americans of African descent and refers to ethnicity and not nationality. Although suicide has traditionally been viewed as a problem that affected more Whites, there have been significant changes in the patterns of suicide among Blacks (Griffith & Bell, 1989;Joe & Kaplan, 2001), namely an increase in the rate of suicide completion (Garlow, Purselle, & Heninger, 2005) and nonfatal suicidal behavior (Joe & Marcus, 2003) among younger Blacks. Suicide is now the third-leading cause of death for Black adolescents aged 15 to 24 (Kochanek, Murphy, Anderson, & Scott, 2004). Despite increasing recognition of the public health significance of these changes, explanations for this phenomenon remain speculative and incomplete. Given that the Black population is projected to double by 2050, the creation of evidence-based interventions to keep succeeding cohorts of younger Blacks from suicide is an extremely important public health objective.Why were previous generations of Blacks able to endure centuries of epic cruelty, also managing to avoid succumbing to hopelessness and depression, whereas recent generations experience higher rates of suicide, especially among the young? Suicide research on people of African heritage is at an early stage of development. Only recently have researchers been able to outline a more detailed profile of Blacks most at risk for suicide completion. Conwell, 2004;Garlow, 2002;Marzuk et al., 1992), poor social support (Joe et al., in press;Kaslow et al., 2004;Kimbrough, Molock, & Walton, 1996), family dysfunction (Fernquist, 2004;Ialongo et al., 2002;O'Donnell, O'Donnell, Wardlaw, & Stueve, 2004;Summerville, Kaslow, Abbate, & Cronan, 1994), and access to firearms (Joe & Kaplan, 2002;Kaplan & Geling, 1998). In spite of such empirical advances, little is known as to why Blacks have experienced chang...