Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in the WORLD6 model for metals, materials, and fossil fuels

Sverdrup, Harald; Ólafsdóttir, Anna Hulda

doi:10.1007/s13563-019-00182-7

Cited by 15 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Consumption demand per capita is a function of GDP as shown in Fig. 6 (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a). From that we get Eq.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The price is influenced by the mining cost. The lower the ore grade, the more expensive it gets (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a;Gutowski et al 2016). Supply to stainless steel production is controlled by the metal price and profit in 4 different markets: iron, manganese, chromium and nickel.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4. Figure 5 shows the causal loop diagram for the model, for the additions to the causal loop diagram for iron (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a). Using the WORLD6 model market simulations implies that there is never an equilibrium in the simulated market.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The higher the ore grade is, the mining cost will be less and less mining cost leads to more mining profit resulting in more mining putting more mined material to the market. The more material is available for sale on the market, the lower the price gets.These market mechanisms and their parameterization are explained in detail in the paper: Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in the WORLD6 model for metals, materials and fossil fuels (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a). The whole metal cycle has several cores with reinforcing loops as can be seen from the bigger CLD in Fig.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The function f(market price) reduces the demand and higher price (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a) and is shown in Fig. 8.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Sverdrup

Ólafsdóttir

2019

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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The integrated systems dynamics model WORLD6 was used to assess long-term supply of stainless steel to society with consideration of the available extractable amount of raw materials. This was done handling four metals simultaneously (iron, chromium, manganese, nickel). We assessed amounts of stainless steel that can be produced in response to demand and for how long, considering the supply of the alloying metals manganese, chromium and nickel. The extractable amounts of nickel are modest, and this puts a limit on how much stainless steel of different qualities can be produced. The simulations indicate that nickel is the key element for stainless steel production, and the issue of scarcity or not depends on how well the nickel supply and recycling systems are managed. The study shows that there is a significant risk that the stainless steel production will reach its maximum capacity around 2055 and slowly decline after that. The model indicates that stainless steel of the type containing Mn-Cr-Ni will have a production peak in about 2040, and the production will decline after 2045 because of nickel supply limitations. Production rates of metals like cobalt, molybdenum, tantalum or vanadium are too small to be viable substitutes for the missing nickel. These metals are limiting on their own as important ingredients for super-alloys and specialty steels and other technological applications. With increased stainless steel price because of scarcity, we may expect recycling to go up and soften the decline somewhat. At recycling degrees above 80%, the supply of nickel, chromium and manganese will be sufficient for several centuries.

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“…Consumption demand per capita is a function of GDP as shown in Fig. 6 (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a). From that we get Eq.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The function f(market price) reduces the demand and higher price (Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019a) and is shown in Fig. 8.…”

Section: The Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Sverdrup

Ólafsdóttir

2019

Biophys Econ Resour Qual

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Development of a Biophysical Economics Module for the Global Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7

2021

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Modeling Indium Extraction, Supply, Price, Use and Recycling 1930–2200 Using the WORLD7 Model: Implication for the Imaginaries of Sustainable Europe 2050

Sverdrup,

van Allen,

Haraldsson

2024

Nat Resour Res

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The increasing need for indium in photovoltaic technologies is set to exceed available supply. Current estimates suggest only 25% of global solar cell demand for indium can be met, posing a significant challenge for the energy transition. Using the WORLD7 model, this study evaluated the sustainability of indium production and overall market supply. The model considers both mass balance and the dynamic interplay of supply–demand in determining indium prices. It is estimated that a total of 312,000 tons of indium can be extracted. However, the primary hindrance to supply is the availability of extraction opportunities and the necessary infrastructure. Unless we improve production capacity, indium may face shortages, hindering the advancement of pivotal technologies. A concern observed is the insufficient rate of indium recycling. Boosting this could greatly alleviate supply pressures. Projections indicate that indium production will reach its peak between 2025 and 2030, while the peak for photovoltaic solar panels due to indium shortages is anticipated around 2090, with an installed capacity of 1200 GW. Thus, the growth of photovoltaic capacity may lag behind actual demand. For a sustainable future, understanding the role of essential metals like indium is crucial. The European Environment Agency (EEA) introduced four “imaginaries” depicting visions of a sustainable Europe by 2050 (SE2050), each representing a unique future set within specific parameters. Currently, Europe is heavily dependent on imports for tech metals and has limited recycling capabilities, putting it at a disadvantage in a global context. To achieve sustainability, there is a need for improved infrastructure for extraction, recycling, and conservation of metals such as indium. These resources are crucial for realizing Europe’s 2050 sustainability objectives. Furthermore, understanding the role of these metals in wider overarching strategies is vital for envisioning a sustainable European Union by 2050, as depicted in the Imaginaries.

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Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in the WORLD6 model for metals, materials, and fossil fuels

Cited by 15 publications

References 42 publications

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel

Development of a Biophysical Economics Module for the Global Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7

Modeling Indium Extraction, Supply, Price, Use and Recycling 1930–2200 Using the WORLD7 Model: Implication for the Imaginaries of Sustainable Europe 2050

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