Concrete Creep Prediction Based on Improved Machine Learning and Game Theory: Modeling and Analysis Methods

Abstract

Understanding the impact of creep on the long-term mechanical features of concrete is crucial, and constructing an accurate prediction model is the key to exploring the development of concrete creep under long-term loads. Therefore, in this study, three machine learning (ML) models, a Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGBoost), are constructed, and the Hybrid Snake Optimization Algorithm (HSOA) is proposed, which can reduce the risk of the ML model falling into the local optimum while improving its prediction performance. Simultaneously, the contributions of the input features are ranked, and the optimal model’s prediction outcomes are explained through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The research results show that the optimized SVM, RF, and XGBoost models increase their accuracies on the test set by 9.927%, 9.58%, and 14.1%, respectively, and the XGBoost has the highest precision in forecasting the concrete creep. The verification results of four scenarios confirm that the optimized model can precisely capture the compliance changes in long-term creep, meeting the requirements for forecasting the nature of concrete creep.