Confidence: achievements and way forward

Raskob, W.; Beresford, Nicholas A.; Duranova, T.; Korsakissok, Irène; Mathieu, Anne; Montero, M.; Müller, Tim; Turcanu, C.; Woda, Clemens

doi:10.1051/radiopro/2020010

Cited by 3 publications

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“…Finally, members of CONFIDENCE identified further research needs. More details on these recommendations can be found in the paper on "the way forward and research needs" (W. Raskob et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CONFIDENCE: project description and main results

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The project CONFIDENCE (COping with uNcertainties For Improved modelling and DEcision making in Nuclear emergenCiEs) performed research on identifying and reducing uncertainties in the release and post-release phases of an emergency. The project started in January 2017 as part of the European Joint Programme CONCERT. It brought together 31 partners from 18 countries and involved members of five European Radiation Protection Platforms namely ALLIANCE, EURADOS, MELODI, NERIS and SHARE. The work program included research on early phase modelling and monitoring considering weather, source term and monitoring uncertainties. Consideration of social, ethical and communication aspects was a key part of our activities. This comprised strategy development in the transition phase together with stakeholder interaction, understanding of the population and which uncertainties are relevant for decision-making. Finally, formal decision aiding techniques were investigated and tested.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CONFIDENCE: project description and main results

et al. 2020

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“…1) was developed; extensive territories in this country and in the neighbouring Belgium were affected by the resultant plume. It was based on the hypothetical accident scenario used by WP1 for uncertainty propagation, the so-called Radiological Ensemble Modelling (REM) case study, with the short release scenario (Korsakissok et al, 2020).…”

Section: Using a Scenario As A Key Methods Of Communication Confidencementioning

confidence: 99%

CONFIDENCE dissemination meeting: Summary on the scenario-based workshop

et al. 2020

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The CONFIDENCE dissemination workshop “Coping with uncertainties for improved modelling and decision making in nuclear emergencies” was held in December 2–5, 2019 (Bratislava, Slovak Republic). About 90 scientists and decision makers attended the workshop. The dissemination workshop allowed the presentation of the CONFIDENCE project results, demonstration of the applicability of the developed methods and tools in interactive discussion sessions and the collection of feedback from the participants. The results were disseminated not only in the form of presentations and posters but also through interactive workshops where all participants were involved in round table working groups. A fictive accidental release scenario taking place at a nuclear power plant was developed and used by each work package in the workshop to provide the basis for interactive sessions and discussions.

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Editorial: the main results of the European CONFIDENCE project

Raskob

Duranova

2020

Radioprotection

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In nuclear emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, dealing with uncertain information on the current situation, or predicted evolution of the situation, is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. In the presence of uncertainty, ineffective decisions are often taken (e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions, inadequately accounting of non-radiological risks), which may result in more overall harm than good due to secondary causalities as observed following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimise disruption of normal living conditions.Decisions on early countermeasures (e.g. evacuation, sheltering, and provision of iodine tablets) are often taken based on deterministic calculations considering the best available source term information and the state of the art numerical weather prediction data as inputs. The source term uncertainty is large and quantification difficult. Uncertainty in meteorological forecasts is routinely quantified by "ensemble predictions". However, these predictions are not used in emergency management. One reason for this is the effort and time required to process 30 to 100 different weather sequences within atmospheric dispersion models.At present, decision making in the early phase is mainly based on modelling followed by a period where monitoring has made enough progress to provide a robust contamination and dose map. However, in between some monitoring data will be available; however, no operational tool exists to combine simulated dose estimations with monitoring data to obtain a more consolidated picture of the radiological situation.The key endpoint for all decision making is the dose and associated risk to affected population groups. However, in the case of the Fukushima accident, only order-of-magnitude dose bands were estimated from (local) contamination and model predictions, with no accounting for individual human behaviour patterns or location. Individual dose measurements could greatly reduce this uncertainty but are limited by capacity.Completely missing from emergency management is the assessments of risk in the early and the transition phases. However, this is important for decision making on the need for medical surveys and long-term support of the affected population.Operational decisions concerning land and food chain management rely on radioecological models that are mostly based on simple, but highly uncertain, transfer ratios to predict contamination in foodstuffs (though such data are few for some climatic areas, (e.g. Mediterranean) and foodstuff-radionuclide combinations). Process-based models might provide an approach to red...

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Confidence: achievements and way forward

Cited by 3 publications

References 3 publications

CONFIDENCE: project description and main results

CONFIDENCE: project description and main results

CONFIDENCE dissemination meeting: Summary on the scenario-based workshop

Editorial: the main results of the European CONFIDENCE project

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