Confidence guides priority between forthcoming tasks

Abstract

Humans can estimate confidence in their decisions, and there is increasing interest on how this feeling of confidence regulates future behavior. Here, we investigate whether confidence in a perceptual task affects prioritizing future trials of that task, independently of task performance. To do so, we experimentally dissociated confidence from performance. Participants judged whether an array of differently colored circles was closer to blue or red, and we manipulated the mean and variability of the circles’ colors across the array. We first familiarized participants with a low mean low variability condition and a high mean high variability condition, which were matched in performance despite participants being more confident in the former. Then we made participants decide in which order to complete forthcoming trials for both conditions. Crucially, prioritizing one condition was associated with being more confident in that condition compared to the other. This relationship was observed both across participants, by correlating inter-individual heterogeneity in prioritization and in confidence, and within participants, by assessing how changes in confidence with accuracy, condition and response times could predict prioritization choices. Our results suggest that confidence, above and beyond performance, guides prioritization between forthcoming tasks, strengthening the evidence for its role in regulating behavior.

Scene variability biases our decisions, but not our perceptual estimates.

“…Metacognition can be considered as the awareness or subjective evaluation one can make of cognitive processes such as perception (e.g., Dunlosky & Metcalfe, 2008; Metcalfe & Shimamura, 1994; Nelson & Narens, 1994). For example, confidence is a metacognitive level that has been shown to regulate different aspects related to visual decision making (for reviews see Mamassian, 2016, 2020) such as whether one needs to accumulate further evidence to make a decision (Balsdon et al, 2020) or even regulate behavior acting as a priority signal (Aguilar-Lleyda et al, 2020; Aguilar-Lleyda & de Gardelle, 2021). It is thus a possibility that being able to access information of how well one discriminates the objects’ movements has influenced the criteria set to decide to go leading to different outcomes.…”

Procrastination and Precrastination from the Perspective of Self‐Control

“…Conversely, starting with an easy task can ensure early task achievement (Fournier, Coder, et al, 2019). Additionally, prioritizing tasks more confidently can reduce the extra cognitive load before performing a difficult task (Aguilar‐Lleyda & de Gardelle, 2021). People can spend more time on a difficult task by starting with an easy one to reduce the cognitive load.…”

High Self-Efficacy and Precrastination: Task Order Choices Based on Deadline Proximity

“…These findings, however, remain inconclusive. When there are multiple tasks of varying difficulty, some studies advocate starting with simpler tasks to minimize cognitive load and facilitate earlier accomplishments (Fournier, Coder et al, 2019) and that prioritizing tasks with more confidence can reduce cognitive load before undertaking complex tasks (Aguilar-Lleyda & de Gardelle, 2021). Other studies have indicated that commencing with a demanding task first decreases self-efficacy (Weinstein & Roediger, 2010).…”