Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa

Gizelis, Theodora‐Ismene; Pickering, Steve; Urdal, Henrik

doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102357

Cited by 31 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…35,36 Consistent with this view, a study conducted in western Iran shows that self-burning in this region is directly related to violence. 37 In addition, in the western and northwestern regions of Iran, urbanization is higher than other places, and as some studies have shown, [38][39][40] the conflict, violence, and crime rate can increases with the rise in urban population. It seems that these problems are probably serious in this area and social, psychological and public interventions may be needed to solve problems such as conflict, violence and self-immolation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend of Conflict Rate in Iran from 2014 to 2020: An Ecological Study

et al. 2023

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Background: Detecting the correlation of conflict rate within provinces over time provides a better understanding for health policymakers in identifying potential causes. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of conflict rate in 31 provinces of Iran using the growth mixture model (GMM). Methods: This ecologic study was conducted based on the data obtained from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization (ILMO) by gender and provinces between March 21, 2014 and March 21, 2020. First, the 7-year cumulative incidence rates were described; second, the trend of conflict rate was modeled by a linear mixed-effects model according to gender and overall; finally, distinct classes of provinces with similar conflict trends in seven years were identified using the GMM. The significance level was considered less than 0.05. Results: Among provinces, Ardebil and Sistan Baluchistan had the highest and the lowest 7-year conflict incidence rates (95% CI) with 66.6 (52.38, 84.67) and 20.79 (13.53, 31.95) per 100000, respectively. The results of the linear mixed-effects model showed that the annual rate of conflict in Iran decreased by 0.37% from 2014 to 2017 and then slightly increased by 0.07% after 2017. In addition, the GMM results indicated that the trends for Iranian provinces can be clustered into four distinct classes. Conclusion: Our study showed the increasing growth of conflict in the last years in most provinces of Iran. Necessary interventions are important to prevent the rising conflict rate due to the various effects of conflict on psychological, social, and health factors.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend of Conflict Rate in Iran from 2014 to 2020: An Ecological Study

et al. 2023

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“…For example, climatic events drive migration (Petrova, 2021;S ˇedova´et al, 2021). Migration can increase social unrest in the host (He et al, 2024;Petrova, 2021) and peri-urban areas (Gizelis et al, 2021) and contribute to perceived insecurity among migrant populations. Adverse climate impacts in major food-producing regions can affect global food prices (Bren d'Amour et al, 2016;Gaupp et al, 2020;Kalkuhl, 2016), and climate impacts on the spread of infectious diseases could lead to the outbreak of epidemics (Gibb et al, 2020;Shuman, 2010).…”

Section: Complex Relationshipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of climate security risk assessment tools

Šedová,

Binder,

Michelini

et al. 2024

Environment and Security

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To address climatic risks to human security, various climate security risk assessment (CSRA) tools have been developed. We have systematically reviewed 28 such tools against state-of-the-art research to (i) define best practices in CSRAs, (ii) identify related gaps in these tools and derive recommendations on how to address them, and (iii) outline a policy-relevant research agenda. We suggest the following measures to improve CSRA tools: Global South actors need to be more strongly involved in priority setting, conceptualization, risk analysis, and intervention design. CSRA tools should offer geographically disaggregated analyses, transparently explain choices regarding tools’ temporal and geographical foci, and assess their implications for the evidence. In this regard, any type of sampling bias should be avoided. Mixed methods can offer clear advantages to study the context-specific climate security dynamics across different time scales. The main gaps in the tools’ conceptualizations evolve around comprehensive consideration of risk determinants (climatic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability) and complex climate–security linkages, communication of uncertainty, and implementation of validation routines. These factors need to be better accounted for. To advance CSRAs, future research should, for example, develop methodologies to systematically integrate quantitative and qualitative approaches, improve the performance of risk predictions, and develop conflict projections.

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“…An increasing canon of work has analysed the rise of urban protests in Sub-Saharan Africa (Branch & Mampilly, 2015;Chaturvedi, 2016;Eckert, 2017;Ellis & Kessel,2009;Fox & Bell, 2016). Some research has even noted a shift from rural rebellions to urban protests (Golooba-Mutebi & Sjögren, 2017;Raleigh, 2015), a phenomenon that seems to have particularly touched the urban peripheries (Gizelis et al, 2021). Studies have identified a variety of factors that have favoured the 'urbanisation of violence' (Raleigh, 2015, p. 90), as well multiple drivers of conflict in urban areas.…”

Section: Urbanisation Violent Protests and Communal Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although urbanisation can be a driver of conflict, cities have the potential to promote community cohesion through the creation of shared urban identities. Whilst popular in recent research, the 'urbanisation of violence' hypothesis has further been criticised, as statistical evidence so far remains inconclusive (Buhaug & Urdal, 2013;Gizelis et al, 2021). Moreover, the dichotomic division between rural/urban has been questioned, as they fail to account for the complex geographies of violence and socio-spatial connections between rural and urban areas (Acker, 2018).…”

Section: Urbanisation Violent Protests and Communal Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unpacking the Addis Ababan Exceptionalism—Living and Making Sense of Violent Protests in Ethiopia’s Capital

Pellerin

Ashenafi²

2022

Urban Forum

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Violent protests and ethno-communal violence in Ethiopia have been on the rise since 2015. Whilst the country’s capital has mostly been spared, protests have occurred in areas surrounding the capital, its suburbs and, to a lesser extent, even in its city centre. This article aims to answer how Addis Ababa residents make sense of and (dis)engage from/in violent protests and ethno-communal violence where they occur. The article explores the perceptions and experiences of established middle-class residents in the capital, drawing on ethnographic fieldwork conducted between June 2020 and May 2021. The article finds that, due to the city’s multi-ethnic character and the residents’ strong metropolitan identity, ethnic identity has not constituted a powerful tool for political mobilisation of residents within the capital. Claims based on ethnicity made by non-residents towards the capital’s resources have largely been rejected by Addis Ababans. Instead, residents have collectively defended their right to the city. The federal state’s readiness to intervene in protests in the capital has further discouraged and countered public protests and communal conflicts. The article reveals that, whilst ‘exceptional’ at the first glance, the peaceful normality of Addis Ababa has relied on ignoring conflicts within Ethiopia’s ethnic-based political settlement and has hidden ordinary, everyday forms of structural violence and conflict.

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Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa

Cited by 31 publications

References 67 publications

Trend of Conflict Rate in Iran from 2014 to 2020: An Ecological Study

Trend of Conflict Rate in Iran from 2014 to 2020: An Ecological Study

A review of climate security risk assessment tools

Unpacking the Addis Ababan Exceptionalism—Living and Making Sense of Violent Protests in Ethiopia’s Capital

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