Conflict–Poverty Relationship in Africa: A Disaggregated Approach

Okunlola, Olalekan Charles; Okafor, I. G.

doi:10.1177/0260107920935726

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…For example, because of crowding and poor access to WASH, poor urban settlements have faced the brunt of outbreaks, including Zika infection, Ebola virus disease, typhoid, and cholera ( 45 ). Conflict can result in loss of possessions, loss of habitual residence, and an inability to find employment, thereby reducing income generation, savings, and financial backstops ( 13 ). In times of worsening poverty, persons may not be able to afford healthcare and basic medical supplies, especially those in vulnerable groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Charnley¹,

Jean²,

Kelman³

et al. 2022

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, during the 2018 Ebola outbreak in DRC, healthcare facilities were attacked, dampening efforts to control the virus ( 12 ). Conflict can worsen preexisting vulnerabilities, including poverty, because conflicts can cause loss of income, disruption to education, damage to livelihoods, and displacement ( 13 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Charnley¹,

Jean²,

Kelman³

et al. 2022

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For example, poor urban settlements have faced the brunt of outbreaks including Zika, Ebola, typhoid, and cholera, due to crowding and poor access to WASH ( 45 ). Conflict can result in loss of possessions, habitual residence, and an inability to find employment, reducing income generation, savings and financial backstops ( 13 ). In times of worsening poverty, people may not be able to afford healthcare and basic medical supplies, especially in vulnerable groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, during the 2018 Ebola outbreak in the DRC healthcare facilities were attacked, dampening efforts to control the virus ( 16 ). Conflict can worsen pre-existing vulnerabilities including poverty, as conflicts can cause loss of income, disruption to education, damage to livelihoods and displacement ( 17 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using self-controlled case series to understand the relationship between conflict and cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo

Charnley

Jean

Kelman

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundCholera outbreaks contribute significantly to diarrhoeal disease mortality, especially in low-income countries. Cholera outbreaks have several social and environmental risk factors and extreme conditions can act as catalysts for outbreaks. A social extreme with known links to infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income and displacement.MethodsHere, we explored this relationship in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), by fitting publicly available cholera and conflict data to conditional logistic regression models. We used the self-controlled case series method in a novel application, to understand if an exposure period of excess risk (conflict), increased the relative incidence of cholera. We also used a sensitivity analysis to understand potential lag effects.ResultsWe found that conflict and cholera had a strong positive relationship, especially in the first week after the event, at a national and sub-national level. Conflict increased the risk of cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and 2.6 times for the DRC. Conflict was attributed to 19.7% and 12.3% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and the DRC, respectively. This was higher for some states/provinces, with a maximum increased risk of 7.5 times.ConclusionThe results found that several states/provinces with the strongest positive relationship were also areas of high reported conflict or were neighbouring states/provinces, suggesting a possible spill-over effect. Our results help highlight the importance of rapid and sufficient assistance during social extremes and the need for pre-existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and access to healthcare to be addressed. In fragile states, conflict resolution should be a top priority to avoid excess risk for both cholera and other health and social implications.FundingNatural Environmental Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, and the Department for International Development.

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“…Disruptions like political instability, natural disaster, pandemics, or conflicts have significant detrimental impacts on social, economic, and human development (Von Einsiedel et al 2017;Schillinger et al 2020;Qayyum, Anjum, and Sabir 2021;Menton et al 2021;Hamoodi 2021;Okunlola and Okafor 2020;. These disruptions also challenge the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals regarding "No poverty (goal 1)," "Zero hunger (goal 2)," "Good health and well-being (goal 3)," "Responsible consumption and production (goal 12)," and "Peace, justice, and strong institutions (goal 16)," For example, revealed that armed conflicts (Fulani ethnic militia) in Nigeria negatively affected farm outputs, areas harvested, and cattle holding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Farmer-herder conflicts and food insecurity: Evidence from rural Nigeria

Nnaji

Ratna

et al. 2022

Agric. Resour. Econom. Rev.

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Food security in many developing countries has been threatened by several factors such as unequal land distribution, ineffective land reform policies, inefficient agricultural value chains, and an increasing number of climate disasters. In Nigeria, these threats are exacerbated by rapid population growth and extreme weather events, which have resulted in farmer-herder conflicts in most agrarian communities. This paper examines the differential impacts of the incidence and severity of farmer-herder resource use conflicts on food insecurity of rural households in Nigeria. We employ a two-stage predictor substitution model to estimate survey data collected from 401 rural households in Nigeria. The empirical results show that both the incidence and the severity of farmer-herder conflicts significantly increase food insecurity, and the severity of these conflicts has a larger impact than their incidence. The estimates of the conditional mixed process models confirm the robustness of our results. Additional analysis reveals that the incidence and severity of farmer-herder conflicts positively and significantly affect food insecurity, measured by the number of days with limited varieties of food eaten. Our findings highlight the importance of policy interventions that address ongoing farmer-herder conflicts in affected countries like Nigeria to enhance food security from a sustainable development perspective.

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Conflict–Poverty Relationship in Africa: A Disaggregated Approach

Cited by 17 publications

References 28 publications

Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Using self-controlled case series to understand the relationship between conflict and cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo

Farmer-herder conflicts and food insecurity: Evidence from rural Nigeria

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