Conformity and Individuals’ Response to Information About Aggregate Turnout

Abstract

How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals' degree of conformity. We argue that in addition to the classic calculus of voting, conformist voters have an added incentive to 'follow the pack' and vote when turnout is high while abstain when turnout is low. We conduct two separate experiments, the first a survey experiment with a representative sample of the UK population and the second a lab experiment in Canada. Both studies confirm our hypothesis. These findings highlight the importance of taking individuals' level of conformity into account when explaining their decision to vote or abstain.

Elections under biased candidate endorsements — an experimental study

“…One of the prediction that follows is that the likelihood of casting a vote is negatively correlated with the expected number of votes by others. On the other hand, information cascades (Cialdini, 2007;Coleman, 1994) or a desire for conformity (Blais and Hortala-Vallve, 2020) might make a voter more likely to turnout if she expects others to vote. In the end, it is then an empirical question whether the competition effect holds.…”