Connecting Indonesian Fires and Drought With the Type of El Niño and Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole During 1979–2016

Pan, Xiaohua; Chin, Mian; Ichoku, Charles; Field, Robert D.

doi:10.1029/2018jd028402

Cited by 96 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Partial contribution of the burned area with Niño3.4, α·Niño3:4 in equation (1), follows the seasonal pattern of the Niño3.4-DMI index; however, the maximum for partial contribution with DMI, β · DMI in equation (1), is in October and it is higher than α·Niño3.4 in October and November, possibly because the IOD peaks in October and November. It means that the IOD also has a substantial role in the fire activity together with Niño3.4 as consistent with previous studies (Field et al, 2009;Pan et al, 2018). We found that correlations between burned area and Niño3.4-DMI index are significant for all months.…”

Section: Equatorial Asia Fire Diversitysupporting

confidence: 93%

Role of Local Air‐Sea Interaction in Fire Activity Over Equatorial Asia

Kim

Jeong

Kug

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Fire activity in Equatorial Asia shows large interannual variability. Teleconnections by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to drought and fire events; however, we found here that significant role of local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Banda Sea in interannual variability of Equatorial Asian burned area in October even after removing the linear effects of teleconnections. October is the transient period from dry to wet season and strengthened seasonal circulation in October leads to a negative SST anomaly through Wind-Evaporation-SST mechanism. This anomalous local air-sea interaction sustains the dry season into October and stronger fire activity. Moreover, we found that the sensitivity of precipitation to SST is higher in October than in other months, hence fires in Equatorial Asia can be sensitively driven by local SST changes. Identification of this sensitivity will underpin better predictions of fire activity and air quality in Equatorial Asia. Plain Language Summary Previous studies have emphasized that the remote forcing associatedwith El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole are the most important climate factors in controlling fire activity in Equatorial Asia. However, we found here that there is a huge diversity of fire activity among El Niño events. In this paper, we newly found that the local air-sea interaction significantly influences on fire activity in Equatorial Asia. When the seasonal wind gets stronger, the Banda Sea, local sea located between Kalimantan and New Guinea, is cooler and it leads to the drought and strong fire activity. We also found that the role of local air-sea interaction strongly depends on the seasonality, which is related to seasonal variation of sea surface temperature climatology. Our findings will be utilized for better predictions of fire activity and air quality in Equatorial Asia.

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Section: Equatorial Asia Fire Diversitysupporting

confidence: 93%

Role of Local Air‐Sea Interaction in Fire Activity Over Equatorial Asia

Kim

Jeong

Kug

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The length of the fire seasons in the southern Siberia (virgin boreal forest) has been projected to increase by at least one month due to the lack of precipitation [51,70], drier climate; higher fire danger would likely lead to huge CO emissions from fires. Pan et al [71] found that fires are always more intensive in southern Kalimantan than in southern Sumatra in all EI Niño events in 1979-2016. More intense and prolonged Indonesian drought and fires occur in the Eastern Pacific type, during which the emitted carbon amounts almost double those in the Central Pacific type.…”

Section: Impacts Of Biomass Burning On the Interannual Variation And mentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite-Observed Variations and Trends in Carbon Monoxide over Asia and Their Sensitivities to Biomass Burning

et al. 2020

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As the carbon monoxide (CO) total column over Asia is among the highest in the world, it is important to characterize its variations in space and time. Using Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) and Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) satellite data, the variations and trends in CO total column over Asia and its seven subregions during 2003–2017 are investigated in this study. The CO total column in Asia is higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. The seasonal maximum and minimum are in spring and summer respectively in the regional mean over Asia, varying between land and oceans, as well as among the subregions. The CO total column in Asia shows strong interannual variation, with a regional mean coefficient of variation of 5.8% in MOPITT data. From 2003 to 2017, the annual mean of CO total column over Asia decreased significantly at a rate of (0.58 ± 0.15)% per year (or −(0.11 ± 0.03) × 1017 molecules cm−2 per year) in MOPITT data, resulting from significant CO decreases in winter, summer, and spring. In most of the subregions, significant decreasing trends in CO total column are also observed, more obviously over areas with high CO total column, including eastern regions of China and the Sichuan Basin. The regional decreasing trends in these areas are over 1% per year. Over the entire Asia, and in fire-prone subregions including South Siberia, Indo-China Peninsula, and Indonesia, we found significant correlations between the MOPITT CO total column and the fire counts from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The variations in MODIS fire counts may explain 58%, 60%, 36%, and 71% of the interannual variation in CO total column in Asia and these three subregions, respectively. Over different land cover types, the variations in biomass burning may explain 62%, 52%, and 31% of the interannual variation in CO total column, respectively, over the forest, grassland, and shrubland in Asia. Extremes in CO total column in Asia can be largely explained by the extreme fire events, such as the fires over Siberia in 2003 and 2012 and over Indonesia in 2006 and 2015. The significant decreasing trends in MODIS fire counts inside and outside Asia suggest that global biomass burning may be a driver for the decreasing trend in CO total column in Asia, especially in spring. In general, the variations and trends in CO total column over Asia detected by AIRS are similar to but smaller than those by MOPITT. The two datasets show similar spatial and temporal variations in CO total column over Asia, with correlation coefficients of 0.86–0.98 in the annual means. This study shows that the interannual variation in atmospheric CO in Asia is sensitive to biomass burning, while the decreasing trend in atmospheric CO over Asia coincides with the decreasing trend in MODIS fire counts from 2003 to 2017.

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“…This ENSO-cycle to CO anomaly relationship is caused by an increase in the Indonesian fire emissions due to the El Niño induced drought, and by a decrease in Indonesian fire emissions due to the La Niña induced high precipitation (e.g., . It is also known that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) intensifies the drought-induced Indonesian fires (e.g., Field et al 2009;Pan et al 2018). These studies strongly suggest that some combination of multiple climate components influence the CO IAV observed in the upper troposphere.…”

Section: Link Between Co and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual Variation of Upper Tropospheric CO over the Western Pacific Linked with Indonesian Fires

Matsueda¹,

Buchholz

Ishijima³

et al. 2019

SOLA

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We analyzed temporal variations of carbon monoxide (CO) in the upper troposphere from 30°N to 30°S observed using instruments aboard commercial airliner flights between Japan and Australia over the period 1993−2016. Here we focused on the CO variations in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) that showed a unique seasonal cycle with an increased CO around October-November every year. The seasonal CO peaks in the SH showed significant interannual variability (IAV), and are notably enhanced in strong El Niño years, especially 1997. The CO enhancements are proportionally associated with CO emissions from Indonesian fires, when compared to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). The IAV of the CO peak anomalies relative to the mean seasonal cycle was assessed by a statistical regression model that uses a combination of multiple climate indices and their interaction terms. We found that over 80% of the CO IAV observed in the upper troposphere could be explained by the model. The largest anomaly in 1997 showed a different CO-climate relationship than the other periods, which could be due to amplification during synchronized climate modes, or include additional influence from other factors such as human activities.

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Connecting Indonesian Fires and Drought With the Type of El Niño and Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole During 1979–2016

Cited by 96 publications

References 57 publications

Role of Local Air‐Sea Interaction in Fire Activity Over Equatorial Asia

Role of Local Air‐Sea Interaction in Fire Activity Over Equatorial Asia

Satellite-Observed Variations and Trends in Carbon Monoxide over Asia and Their Sensitivities to Biomass Burning

Interannual Variation of Upper Tropospheric CO over the Western Pacific Linked with Indonesian Fires

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