Connecting ocean heat transport changes from the midlatitudes to the Arctic Ocean

Nummelin, Aleksi; Li, Camille; Hezel, Paul

doi:10.1002/2016gl071333

Cited by 85 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…This freshening counteracted the impact of the millennial cooling on surface water density. These results point to the important role of the subpolar gyre and its interactions with the Arctic, in agreement with recent model studies (Lehner et al, 2013;Moreno-Chamarro et al, 2017;Nummelin et al, 2016). It indicates a slowdown of the subpolar gyre circulation (Moreno-Chamarro et al, 2017), as depicted by positive anomalies in sea surface height and barotropic stream function across the subpolar North Atlantic (Figure 1h).…”

Section: Roles Of Thermodynamic Versus Dynamic Processessupporting

confidence: 91%

Asymmetric Cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic During the Past Two Millennia: A Dual Observation‐Modeling Study

Zhong

Jahn

Miller

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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The past 2,000 years provide a critical context for understanding twentieth century climate change. Due to the Past Global Changes 2k initiative, an extensive proxy database provides opportunities to assess regional climate change that have stronger ecological and societal implications than global‐mean temperature changes alone. However, the various sources of paleoclimate reconstruction poses serious challenges to scientifically and statistically sound inference within a unified framework. Here we show results from the first transient simulation for the past 2,000 years with the Community Earth System Model, called past2k, and use data‐model comparison to refine the interpretation of the proxy data. Our results indicate that the Atlantic Arctic was cooling at a faster rate than the Pacific Arctic over the past two millennia, in both proxy data and models. The model shows that this cooling pattern was dynamically supported by both a weakening of North Atlantic subpolar gyre and a stronger Aleutian Low.

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Section: Roles Of Thermodynamic Versus Dynamic Processessupporting

confidence: 91%

Asymmetric Cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic During the Past Two Millennia: A Dual Observation‐Modeling Study

Zhong

Jahn

Miller

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…An increase in the meridional oceanic heat transport was found to lead to a higher surface warming through the resulting increase in turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere [Holland and Bitz, 2003;Mahlstein and Knutti, 2011;Marshall et al, 2014Marshall et al, , 2015Nummelin et al, 2017]. This is in contrast with previous studies.…”

Section: Additional Remarkscontrasting

confidence: 80%

“…Finally, an increase in the temperature of the meridional oceanic inflow, as seen in our results, could be explained by weaker heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in subpolar latitudes due to a faster atmospheric warming than oceanic warming [Nummelin et al, 2017]. A similar mechanism was shown to drive the delayed ocean warming in the Southern Ocean as well [Armour et al, 2016].…”

Section: Additional Remarkssupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Changes in the ocean-atmosphere exchange in the subpolar ocean were shown to be a source for differences in the meridional oceanic heat flux between models [Nummelin et al, 2017]. Changes in the ocean-atmosphere exchange in the subpolar ocean were shown to be a source for differences in the meridional oceanic heat flux between models [Nummelin et al, 2017].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

Burgard

Notz

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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We investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.

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“…However, we cannot assess the causality of these linkages. Indeed, the stronger SST warming over the North Atlantic could enhance the poleward ocean heat transport and could then melt more sea ice (Mahlstein and Knutti, 2011;Jung et al, 2017;Nummelin et al, 2017). The basin-wide Atlantic warming is also crucial for the negative tendency of the NAO, via an atmospheric wave train (Sato et al, 2014) and troposphere-stratosphere interaction (Omrani et al, 2016).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

et al. 2017

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We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60 • N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

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Connecting ocean heat transport changes from the midlatitudes to the Arctic Ocean

Cited by 85 publications

References 66 publications

Asymmetric Cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic During the Past Two Millennia: A Dual Observation‐Modeling Study

Asymmetric Cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Arctic During the Past Two Millennia: A Dual Observation‐Modeling Study

Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

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