c . In [16] we show that this formula is a crucial ingredient in the study of critical bond percolation on H(d, n) for d = 2, 3, 4. The proof uses a lace expansion for the upper bound and a novel comparison with a branching random walk for the lower bound. The proof of the lower bound also yields a refined asymptotics for the susceptibility of a subcritical Erdős-Rényi random graph.MSC 2010. 60K35, 60K37, 82B43.1 Given a sequence of random variables (Xn) n∈N , we write Xn = Θ(f (n)) w.h.p. (with high probability) if there exist constants C ≥ c > 0 such that Pp(cf (n) ≤ Xn ≤ Cf (n)) → 1 as n → ∞.2 Subsequent results in [3,33,36,40] are much sharper and comprehensive than what is summarized here, and there is an extensive body of literature on the problem. 3 Given three sequences (an), (bn), (cn), we write that an = bn + O(cn) when there exists a constant K < ∞ such that |an − bn| ≤ Kcn for all n.