Consciousness of the future as a matrix of maybe: Pragmatic prospection and the simulation of alternative possibilities.

Abstract

Thinking about the future highlights the constructive nature of consciousness, as opposed to merely representing what is therebecause the future is not yet available to be seen. We elaborate this point to emphasize how consciousness deals in alternative possibilities, and indeed preconscious interpretation confers meaning by recognizing these alternatives. Crucially, the goal of prospection is less to predict what is sure to happen than to prepare for action in situations defined by sets of incompatible alternative options, each of which might or might not come true. We review multiple lines of evidence indicating that people conceptualize the future as just such a matrix of maybe. Thus, people think of the future as highly changeable. Most prospective thinking involves planning, which is designed to bring about one outcome rather than alternatives. Optimism may often reflect an initial, automatic response that is soon followed by conscious appreciation of obstacles and other factors that can produce less desired, alternative outcomes. People moralize the future more than the past, presumably to promote the more desirable outcomes. Anticipated emotion helps people evaluate future possible outcomes. People specifically anticipate the matrix of maybe and sometimes seek to preserve multiplicity of options. We integrate these patterns of findings with a pragmatic theory of prospection: Thinking of the future as a multi-maybe matrix is useful for guiding action.

Fast optimism, slow realism? Causal evidence for a two-step model of future thinking

“…As such, "motivated intuition" is perhaps a better description of the current findings than "motivated reasoning". Ultimately, the corrective effect of slow reflection might rely on a key function of consciousness: The ability to simulate the future as a collection of multiple possibilities (Baumeister, Maranges, & Sjåstad, 2018;Phillips, Morris, & Cushman, 2019).…”

“…To test this idea empirically, the present work compared immediate predictions with those coming after a brief time delay. The two-step model of future thinking is informed by recent theorizing on the interplay between human consciousness and prospection (Baumeister, Maranges, & Sjåstad, 2018), and the dual-process framework of judgment and decision-making (Kahneman, 2003;Evans & Stanovich, 2013).…”

Greener grass or sour grapes? How people value future goals after initial failure

“…Decisions can also be guided by the anticipated value of future rewards. Future-oriented thinking at this level is rare in nature, but there is good evidence showing that it plays a large role in people's everyday life and particularly in decision-making (Baumeister, Maranges, & Sjåstad, 2018). Therefore, we chose happiness forecasting as our primary outcome measure of reward valuation.…”

Self-serving optimism in hedonic prediction: People believe in a bright future for themselves and their friends, but not for their enemies

“…Time asymmetries between past and future have been documented in several domains of human judgment, finding a prospective increase in perceived control of external events (Rothbart & Snyder, 1970), causal attribution to one's will (Helzer & Gilovich, 2012), rational capacity (O'Brien, 2015), self-enhancing trait evaluations (Kanten & Teigen, 2008), event valuation (Caruso, Gilbert, & Wilson, 2008), moral judgment of self (Sjåstad & Baumeister, 2019), moral judgment of others (Caruso, 2010), envious reactions to the success of others (Kristal, O'Brien, & Caruso, 2019), and selfdeceptive happiness judgments (Robinson & Ryff, 1999). Multiple explanations are possible for these findings, but a common theme seems to be that people perceive the future as more open and changeable than the past (Baumeister, Maranges, & Sjåstad, 2018).…”

“…Does tomorrow look a bit brighter than yesterday? To understand how people make decisions and navigate through their lives, it is crucial to understand how they think about the future (Suddendorf & Corballis, 2007;Gilbert & Wilson, 2007;Baumeister, Maranges, & Sjåstad, 2018). The central question in the current investigation, is whether people expect their future well-being to systematically exceed their well-being in the past.…”