Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

Abstract

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N=2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of nonexperts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent nonendorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

Wetlands In a Changing Climate: Science, Policy and Management

“…Communicating with policy makers and the public requires aligning wetland science and specific climate mitigation and adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services with the concerns and mindset of the audience (Leiserowitz et al 2015(Leiserowitz et al , 2017Roser Renouf et al 2016 Cook et al (2013Cook et al ( , 2016 document that 97% of climate scientists agree that anthropogenic climate change is occurring. The near universal agreement among climate scientists can create confidence in the public to support action, but in addition, it is essential to make clear the science that is behind the consensus.…”

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