Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya

Thurlow, James

doi:10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The measurement of indirect pandemic impacts has recently been quantified using simulations based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This includes studies measuring the impact of pandemics, taking global (Burns et al 2006;Lee and McKibbin 2004;Verikios 2017) or country-specific approaches (see, for instance, the analyses by Smith et al (2011), Thurlow (2011), Keogh-Brown et al (2010), Dixon et al (2010), and Kotsopoulos et al (2019), applied to the UK, Kenya, the USA, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands). To our knowledge, intersectoral models for analyzing business structure have not yet been developed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic lockdown and SMEs: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

2021

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The relative importance of small-and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) and large firms is a recurrent topic in the small business economics literature. This paper presents a real and financial social accounting matrix (FSAM) capable of distinguishing the direct and indirect effects that are transferred from micro-, small, medium, and large firms to the rest of the economy. We use the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) to explore the sequence of reactions associated with shocks that arise from the COVID-19 lockdown. Using a structural model for the Spanish economy, we identify the role of different firm size categories in the aggregate gross domestic product (GDP). Our results allow us to reconcile the mixed narrative that accompanies the evaluation of the role played by these categories in economic activity by revealing that both SMEs and large firms are important for supporting economic activity. In particular, SMEs help explain 43% of the income and two-thirds of the unemployment decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings also show the importance of conditioning SME industrial policy to sectoral analysis. Plain English summary The effects of the macroeconomic lockdown and its transmission to the rest of the economy differ by firm size and across sectors. Using the Spanish context for micro-, small, medium, and large firms, we distinguish the direct and indirect effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The main implications are the following: (1) Research: results emphasize that SMEs and large firms are both important to support economic activity but, in order to account for the relative effects on SMEs, it is crucial to consider the specific sector that receives the disruption. 2) Policy: SMEs are an important focus of business support policies within the EU. According to our estimations, disruptions in SMEs produce larger reductions in demand. These results could support credit policies for SMEs with a strong impact on the aggregate economy due to their greater productive and financial linkages with the domestic economy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic lockdown and SMEs: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

2021

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“…This result further underlines the importance given to market impacts in farmers’ decision‐making. Such market disturbances have been well characterized and quantified for avian influenza in several countries by multimarket or even computable general equilibrium models (Rodriguez et al., ; Diao, ; Thurlow, ). These impacts are complex and entail many distributional effects, besides the overall loss for society.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Perceived Value of Passive Animal Health Surveillance: The Case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Vietnam

Delabouglise

Antoine‐Moussiaux

Phan

et al. 2015

Zoonoses and Public Health

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SummaryEconomic evaluations are critical for the assessment of the efficiency and sustainability of animal health surveillance systems and the improvement of their efficiency. Methods identifying and quantifying costs and benefits incurred by public and private actors of passive surveillance systems (i.e. actors of veterinary authorities and private actors who may report clinical signs) are needed. This study presents the evaluation of perceived costs and benefits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) passive surveillance in Vietnam. Surveys based on participatory epidemiology methods were conducted in three provinces in Vietnam to collect data on costs and benefits resulting from the reporting of HPAI suspicions to veterinary authorities. A quantitative tool based on stated preference methods and participatory techniques was developed and applied to assess the non‐monetary costs and benefits. The study showed that poultry farmers are facing several options regarding the management of HPAI suspicions, besides reporting the following: treatment, sale or destruction of animals. The option of reporting was associated with uncertain outcome and transaction costs. Besides, actors anticipated the release of health information to cause a drop of markets prices. This cost was relevant at all levels, including farmers, veterinary authorities and private actors of the upstream sector (feed, chicks and medicine supply). One benefit associated with passive surveillance was the intervention of public services to clean farms and the environment to limit the disease spread. Private actors of the poultry sector valued information on HPAI suspicions (perceived as a non‐monetary benefit) which was mainly obtained from other private actors and media.

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“…In order to uphold the high demand for IC products and increase profits along the IC value chain, there is need for effective disease control options which minimize antimicrobial residues. Little success has been attained in Kenya in containing these diseases and the population continues to incur losses of about US$ 100 million per annum [6]Vaccination failures have been reported following the use of IBD and ND vaccines in IC, this discourages the use of these vaccines among farmers. The use of efficacious and effective vaccines is key in controlling these diseases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Household Baseline Survey on Indigenous Chicken Production Characteristics and Constraints in Busia and Machakos Counties of Kenya

Muleke

Ogali

Amanya

et al. 2022

JSRR

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Aims: To collect preliminary baseline data prior to validation of three climate-smart technologies. Study Design: A structured questionnaire was employed with participation of actors along the Indigenous Chicken value chain. Place and Duration of Study: Study was conducted from May 2019 to June 2020 within four (4) Sub-Counties in Busia and Machakos where high Indigenous Chicken populations are found. Methodology: A total of 160 households were surveyed. Targeted household information was recorded viz: distribution of respondents by village in the Counties; farmer socio-economic factors; flock structure and characteristics; disease and parasite constraints, management practices; disease reporting and communication amongst recruited farmers. Results: Results revealed that 56.5% of the respondents were male and 43.5% were female wit mean age of 50 years. Most farmers had formal education (97%) and practiced semi extensive poultry farming system (59%). Both indigenous and exotic chicken (62%) were kept for income purposes (82.6%) and only young chicks received feed supplements (55.8%). Newcastle (18.5%) and coccidiosis (16.4%) comprised the two major disease constraints reported. Prevalent bird disease symptoms were diarrhea (24.9%) and coughing (23.1%) while mites (27.9%) and fleas (22.3%) dominated the ecto-parasites. Disease control strategies comprised: vaccines (72.8%), dewormers (44.9%) and ethno-veterinary medicine. Aloe secundiflora and Aloe feroxin, were singled out as locally available and effective means of treating diarrhea (62.9%), respiratory infections (61.9%) and worm control (64.5%). Most Indigenous Chicken farmers (76.8%) failed to report illnesses among their flock and did not access to health services (72.1%). Farmers accessed health information through radio (26.5%) as opposed to mobile phones (1.65%). Conclusion: Findings of this survey reveal a low-grade free-range poultry system characterized by poor disease control. This scenario calls for targeted efforts by both government and private stakeholders to improve Indigenous Chicken management and help farmers adopt alternative climatic smart disease control interventions.

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Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya

Cited by 5 publications

References 9 publications

Macroeconomic lockdown and SMEs: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

Macroeconomic lockdown and SMEs: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain

The Perceived Value of Passive Animal Health Surveillance: The Case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Vietnam

Household Baseline Survey on Indigenous Chicken Production Characteristics and Constraints in Busia and Machakos Counties of Kenya

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