Consequences of climate change on food-energy-water systems in arid regions without agricultural adaptation, analyzed using FEWCalc and DSSAT

Phetheet, Jirapat; Hill, Mary C.; Barron, Robert W.; Rossi, Matthew W.; Amanor‐Boadu, Vincent; Wu, Hongyu; Kisekka, Isaya

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105309

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the DSSAT model, the infiltration and soil water dynamics were simulated based on the equation provided by the Soil Conservations Service of America (Washington, DC, USA) and the one-dimensional water balance model developed by Ritchie [57] (pp. [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. The evapotranspiration was simulated daily using the Penman-Monteith method in FAO-56.…”

Section: Data Inputs Calibration and Validation Of The Dssat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prior studies have made significant progress in simulating the crop growth and yield and clarifying the response of crops to climate change in many areas, using crop models [41][42][43]. However, for some especially climate-sensitive areas (e.g., temperate semi-humid and semi-arid monsoon climate areas), studies using crop models coupled with scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are still scarce.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of Climate Change on the Yield and Water Footprint of Winter Wheat in the Haihe River Basin, China

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change can impact the yield and water footprint of crops. Therefore, assessing such impacts carries great significance for regional water and food security. This study validated and verified the variety parameters of winter wheat for the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model, using the long-term (1993–2013) growth and yield data observed from six agricultural experiment stations in the Haihe River Basin (HRB), China. The growth process was simulated under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), named RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5—climate scenarios driven by the HadGEM2-ES model. The variety parameters of winter wheat showed high accuracy in the simulation of the anthesis and maturity dates, and could be used for long-term prediction of the growth process. The trends of climate change had positive impacts on the water footprint of winter wheat but adverse impacts on the yield. The growing period was shortened by 3.6 days, 4.7 days, and 5.0 days per decade in the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, due to the rapid accumulation of heat. The yield would be increased in lower emissions scenarios (17% in RCP2.6), but decreased in high-emissions scenarios due to high temperatures, which may restrict the growth of wheat. The water footprint was decreased by 10%, 11%, and 13% in the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, indicating that the water-use efficiency could be improved in the future. The results showed broad application prospects of the DSSAT model in simulating the response of crop growth to climate change.

show abstract

Section: Data Inputs Calibration and Validation Of The Dssat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on the Yield and Water Footprint of Winter Wheat in the Haihe River Basin, China

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…RCP 4.5 and 8.5 results are available in FEWCalcsee Appendix B for a discussion of RCP. FEWCalc results using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are compared in Phetheet et al (2021). Results from the more severe RCP 8.5 are presented in this article.…”

Section: Weather Climate and Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relating agriculture, energy, and water decisions to farm incomes and climate projections using two freeware programs, FEWCalc and DSSAT

Phetheet¹,

Hill

Barron

et al. 2021

Agricultural Systems

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…In addition, their coupling with global climate models (GCMs) enables predictions of effects of climate change on crop yields (Feng et al, 2019 ; Liu et al, 2020b ), nitrogen contribution efficiencies (Liu et al, 2020a ), suitable planting area changes (Yang et al, 2015 ), and other factors. Many crop models have been used in climate change research, such as the APSIM (Bahri et al, 2019 ; Saddique et al, 2020 ; Wang et al, 2020c ), DSSAT (Ngwira et al, 2014 ; Phetheet et al, 2021 ), WOFOST (Gilardelli et al, 2018 ), EPIC (Feng & Hao, 2020 ; Niu et al, 2009 ), and WheatGrow (Lv et al, 2013 ) models. Different models have different structures, and the resulting simulations sometimes differ (Tao et al, 2017a ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth

Sun

Wang

2023

Food Sec.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

To address challenges associated with climate change, population growth and decline in international trade linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, determining whether national crop production can meet populations’ requirements and contribute to socio-economic resilience is crucial. Three crop models and three global climate models were used in conjunction with predicted population changes. Compared with wheat production in 2000–2010, total production and per capita wheat production were significantly (P < 0.05) increase in 2020–2030, 2030–2040 and 2040–2050, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to climate change in China. However, when considering population and climate changes, the predicted per capita production values were 125.3 ± 0.3, 127.1 ± 2.3 and 128.8 ± 2.7 kg during the 2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2040–2050 periods under RCP4.5, or 126.2 ± 0.7, 128.7 ± 2.5, and 131.0 ± 4.1 kg, respectively, under RCP8.5. These values do not significantly differ (P > 0.05) from the baseline level (127.9 ± 1.3 kg). The average per capita production in Loess Plateau and Gansu-Xinjiang subregions declined. In contrast, per capita production in the Huanghuai, Southwestern China, and Middle-Lower Yangtze Valleys subregions increased. The results suggest that climate change will increase total wheat production in China, but population change will partly offset the benefits to the grain market. In addition, domestic grain trade will be influenced by both climate and population changes. Wheat supply capacity will decline in the main supply areas. Further research is required to address effects of the changes on more crops and in more countries to obtain deeper understanding of the implications of climate change and population growth for global food production and assist formulation of robust policies to enhance food security. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-023-01351-x.

show abstract

Consequences of climate change on food-energy-water systems in arid regions without agricultural adaptation, analyzed using FEWCalc and DSSAT

Cited by 8 publications

References 44 publications

Impact of Climate Change on the Yield and Water Footprint of Winter Wheat in the Haihe River Basin, China

Impact of Climate Change on the Yield and Water Footprint of Winter Wheat in the Haihe River Basin, China

Relating agriculture, energy, and water decisions to farm incomes and climate projections using two freeware programs, FEWCalc and DSSAT

Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About