SUMMARY:In medical research analyses, continuous variables are often converted into categoric variables by grouping values into Ն2 categories. The simplicity achieved by creating Ն2 artificial groups has a cost: Grouping may create rather than avoid problems. In particular, dichotomization leads to a considerable loss of power and incomplete correction for confounding factors. The use of data-derived "optimal" cut-points can lead to serious bias and should at least be tested on independent observations to assess their validity. Both problems are illustrated by the way the results of a registry on unruptured intracranial aneurysms are commonly used. Extreme caution should restrict the application of such results to clinical decision-making. Categorization of continuous data, especially dichotomization, is unnecessary for statistical analysis. Continuous explanatory variables should be left alone in statistical models.ABBREVIATIONS: ACA ϭ anterior cerebral artery; CHUM ϭ Centre hospitalier de l'Université de Montré al; ICA ϭ internal carotid artery; ISUIA ϭ International Study of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms; MCA ϭ middle cerebral artery; Pcirc ϭ posterior circulation; PcomA ϭ posterior communicating artery; SAH ϭ subarachnoid hemorrhage; UIA ϭ unruptured intracranial aneurysms U IAs are common (approximately 2% of the adult population), but they most often remain silent until a rupture occurs (incidence, 2-20/10,000/year).1 No one is sure what to do with them, but with the increasing accessibility of noninvasive imaging of the brain, the problem is growing rapidly.
2A common and yet controversial approach to decisionmaking is to compare the natural history of the disease and the risks of treatment.3,4 One prominent risk factor for rupture of UIAs is size. In 1998, a landmark study on this subject, the ISUIA, estimated from retrospectively obtained data that the risk of rupture of aneurysms smaller than 10 mm was extremely low.5 Subsequent guidelines published in 2000 discouraged the treatment of aneurysms smaller than that size.
6In a 2003 study, the same group, confronted with different results when data were collected prospectively, claimed that aneurysms Ͻ7 mm in a special subgroup of patients (defined by the absence of a history of rupture of another lesion, having an aneurysm located in the anterior circulation, and selected for observation) were at zero risk of rupture, but only when some carotid aneurysms were excluded (PcomA aneurysms).
7Despite these specifications, a threshold of 7 mm is now used by many as a normative criterion for clinical decisions 8 or in cost-effectiveness analyses.
9Size of UIAs can serve to illustrate the problems associated with the categorization of continuous variables, in particular dichotomization. Our aim is to consider how continuous variables should be treated and analyzed when we suspect that risk increases or decreases in proportion to the variable in question. We address the following questions: What are the advantages and disadvantages of categorization? If we de...