Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species

Abstract

The present study applies a series of new techniques to understand the conservation of Cerrado tree species in the face of climate change. We applied techniques from the emerging field of ecological niche modeling to develop a first-pass assessment of likely effects of climate change on tree species' distributions in the Cerrado biome by relating known occurrence points to electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions. Distributional data represent 15,657 records for 162 tree species occurring in Cerrado. By focusing on the trees of one important and highly endemic biome, rather than the biota of a political unit, we were able to focus on developing biome-wide projections. An important limitation of this study is that only those species with more than 30 unique occurrence records were used-hence, the study is limited to those species of relatively broad geographic distribution, and does not take into account those species with narrower geographic distributions. Global climate change scenarios considered were drawn from the general circulation models of HadCM2; we assessed both a conservative and a less conservative scenario of how climates could change over the next 50 year using the (Hadley HHGSDX50 and HHGGAX50 scenarios, respectively): HHGSDX50 assumes 0.5%/yr CO2 increase, whereas HHGGAX50 assumes a 1%/yr CO2 increase. Results of predictions of present and future distributions varied widely among species. Present distributional models predicted areas of 655,211-2,287,482 out of the 2,496,230 km 2 core area of Cerrado in Brazil. All models used to represent species' present geographic ranges were highly statistically significant based on independent test data sets of point localities. Most species were projected to decline seriously in potential distributional area, with both scenarios anticipating losses of >50% of potential distributional area for essentially all species. Indeed, out of 162 species examined, between the two climate change scenarios, 18 (HHGSDX50 scenario) -56 (HHGGAX50 scenario) were predicted to end up without habitable areas in the Cerrado region, and 91 (HHGSDX50 scenario) -123 (HHGGAX50 scenario) species were predicted to decline by more than 90% in potential distributional area in the Cerrado region. Bearing in mind the limitations of the method, and considering its explicit assumptions, these results nevertheless should be cause for ample concern regarding Cerrado biodiversity. Since only 2.25% of the Cerrado biome is presently protected, this future scenario presents a pessimistic forecast, which would likely include widespread species loss from the biome, as well as dramatic shifts to the south and east, further complicating conservation planning efforts.

As espécies brasileiras endêmicas de Campylopus Brid. (Bryophyta) estão ameaçadas? Uma análise usando modelagem para avaliar os seus estados de conservação

“…Este estudo mostrou um cenário pessimista com 50% de redução da ocorrência potencial de espécies até o ano 2050, mais uma possível migração para regiões sul das espécies atualmente existentes. Um cenário mais pessimista para o Cerrado foi descrito por Siqueira & Peterson (2003), esses autores estudaram as consequências das mudanças climáticas na distribuição geográfica de 162 espécies de árvores, mostrando que a diminuição e a perda de áreas de ocorrência para a maioria das espécies devem ser superiores a 50%.…”

“…Dessa forma, os resultados obtidos com a modelagem corresponderiam a uma previsão, apoiando-se em dados do nicho da espécie, e projetando uma área que representa a distribuição potencial da espécie fundamentado esses resultados em camadas ambientais utilizadas na modelagem (Siqueira & Peterson 2003).…”

“…Técnicas oriundas de modelagem de nicho ecológico foram utilizadas por Siqueira & Peterson (2003), para desenvolver um primeiro passo no entendimento aos efeitos de mudanças climáticas na distribuição de espécies arbóreas do bioma Cerrado, através do cruzamento de informações entre os pontos de ocorrência com dados de coberturas ambientais resumindo as dimensões ecológicas para as espécies analisada. Atualmente, tais metodologias de modelagem são consideradas as mais apropriadas para referenciar áreas ambientais protegidas (Pressey & Cowling 2001, Margules & Sarkar 2007 Por fim, o uso dos modelos de distribuição geográfica para as espécies de Campylopus Brid.…”

Global Biodiversity Informatics: setting the scene for a “new world” of ecological forecasting

“…Integrating primary biodiversity data with environmental information via ENM, researchers can predict impacts of global climate change on terrestrial and marine biodiversity (Siqueira and Peterson, 2003;Thomas et al, 2004); conservationists can find gaps in networks of conservation reserve systems (Rodrigues et al, 2004); and agricultural researchers and health specialists can analyze insect collections to predict the timing and spread of pests and diseases (Peterson, 2003).…”

“…This field has great potential in diverse realms, with applications ranging from prediction of distributions of known and unknown species (Raxworthy et al, 2003), prediction of geographic and ecological distribution of infectious disease vectors Costa et al, 2003;Peterson et al, 2002c;Peterson and Shaw, 2003), prediction of species' invasions (Peterson and Vieglais, 2001;Peterson, 2003), and assessment of impacts of climate change on biodiversity (Peterson et al, 2002b;Siqueira and Peterson, 2003;Thomas et al, 2004). This potential nonetheless remains largely unexplored, as this field is only now becoming a vibrant area of inquiry and study.…”