Consequences of selecting technology pathways on cumulative carbon dioxide emissions for the United Kingdom

Abstract

The UK has an ambitious target of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, to be reached using a series of 'carbon budgets' to aid policy development. Current energy systems modelling methods do not explore, or are unable to account for, physical (thermodynamic) limits to the rate of change of infrastructure. The power generation sector has a variety of technological options for this low-carbon transition. We compare physically constrained scenarios that accentuate either carbon capture and storage, fastest plausible nuclear new build, or fastest plausible build rate of offshore wind. We set these in the context of the UK's legislated fifth carbon budget, which has a comprehensive range of carbon reduction measures with respect to business-as-usual. The framework for our scenario comparison uses our novel system dynamics model to substantiate the policy's ability to meet 2035 emissions targets while maintaining financial productivity and socially expected employment levels. For an ambitious nuclear new build programme we find that even if it stays on track it is more expensive than offshore wind generation and delays emissions reductions. This affects the cumulative emissions and impacts on the UK's ability to contribute to international climate change targets. If delays or cancellation occur to the deployment programmes of carbon capture and storage technologies or nuclear new build, we suggest the electricity and decarbonisation targets can by met by a fast growth of offshore wind generation with no change to financial and employment levels.

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

“…Distinctly, population growth was modelled endogenously as a result of fertility and death rates resulting from climate change in the ANEMI model [55,77]. Economic development was also linked to employment opportunities [76]. In some cases, labour dynamics were understood as a demandsupply feedback, in which households provided labour to the market, and the resulting household income led to an average consumption of goods [55,62,77].…”

Risk Profiles of Scenarios for the Low -Carbon Transition

“…Experienced developers specify and generate scenarios to address clearly-defined questions. For this UK case study three well-considered scenario sets are selected, namely those produced by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) [35], National Grid (NG) [36], and the 7see whole-economy energy model [34,37]. The CCC advises the UK Government, and their scenarios inform the net-zero policy by generating carbon budgets [35,38].…”

Greenhouse Gas Exchange from Agriculture in Italy

“…Finally, it is stated, that currently the UK does not have plans for large-scale negative emissions, and the post-carbon society is not currently within sight (Moe and Røttereng 2018). However, if the cost or inability of selecting technology pathway such as nuclear and NETs for deployment is still uncertain, other alternative technologies such as offshore wind could reach the same level of decarbonisation a lower cost (Roberts et al 2018).…”