Conservation biogeography of the Cerrado's wild edible plants under climate change: Linking biotic stability with agricultural expansion

Oliveira, Guilherme de; Lima‐Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Terribile, Levi Carina; Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Telles, Mariana Pires de Campos; Diniz‐Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

doi:10.3732/ajb.1400352

Cited by 24 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…For instance, the work of Elith et al (2006) has seen over 5,200 citations, but its conclusions are rarely questioned, even given known weaknesses in the evaluation metrics used (Golicher, Ford, Cayuela, & Newton, 2012;Lobo et al, 2008;Peterson, Papeş, & Eaton, 2007;Peterson et al, 2008). In this study, we have begun to address key issues that have been generally neglected in selecting ENMs for studies (but see Diniz-Filho et al, 2009;Buisson, Thuiller, Casajus, Lek, & Grenouillet, 2010;Terrible et al, 2012;de Oliveira, Araújo, Rangel, Alagador, & Diniz-Filho, 2012;de Oliveira, Rangel, Lima-Ribeiro, Terribile, & Diniz-Filho, 2014;de Oliveira et al, 2015;Collevatti et al, 2012Collevatti et al, , 2013. Model performance varied dramatically among ENMs and depending on the evaluation metric employed, making multimetric comparisons and careful consideration of the needs of each particular study a critical element in the analytical process and final model selection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological niche modeling re‐examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Escobar

Qiao

Cabello

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Many previous studies have attempted to assess ecological niche modeling performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approaches, even though diverse problems with this metric have been pointed out in the literature. We explored different evaluation metrics based on independent testing data using the Darwin's Fox (Lycalopex fulvipes) as a detailed case in point. Six ecological niche models (ENMs; generalized linear models, boosted regression trees, Maxent, GARP, multivariable kernel density estimation, and NicheA) were explored and tested using six evaluation metrics (partial ROC, Akaike information criterion, omission rate, cumulative binomial probability), including two novel metrics to quantify model extrapolation versus interpolation (E‐space index I) and extent of extrapolation versus Jaccard similarity (E‐space index II). Different ENMs showed diverse and mixed performance, depending on the evaluation metric used. Because ENMs performed differently according to the evaluation metric employed, model selection should be based on the data available, assumptions necessary, and the particular research question. The typical ROC AUC evaluation approach should be discontinued when only presence data are available, and evaluations in environmental dimensions should be adopted as part of the toolkit of ENM researchers. Our results suggest that selecting Maxent ENM based solely on previous reports of its performance is a questionable practice. Instead, model comparisons, including diverse algorithms and parameterizations, should be the sine qua non for every study using ecological niche modeling. ENM evaluations should be developed using metrics that assess desired model characteristics instead of single measurement of fit between model and data. The metrics proposed herein that assess model performance in environmental space (i.e., E‐space indices I and II) may complement current methods for ENM evaluation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological niche modeling re‐examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Escobar

Qiao

Cabello

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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“…One opportunity for preserving species with low potential for dispersal is to preserve areas that are climatically or environmentally stable over time (Ashcroft, 2010;Oliveira et al, 2015;Terribile et al, 2012). Such environmental refugia allow viable populations to survive when conditions around them are unsuitable, enabling them to colonize adjacent areas when climatic conditions become favorable again (Ashcroft, 2010;Provan & Bennett, 2008;Tzedakis, Lawson, Frogley, Hewitt, & Preece, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Brazilian Protected Areas Under Climate Change

Caten

Lima‐Ribeiro

Silva

et al. 2017

Tropical Conservation Science

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Climate change can lead to a geographic range shift of species in the future, which might challenge a species to maintain viable populations with lower dispersal abilities over time. Therefore, protecting stable habitats is important for the conservation of these species. Herein, we assess the effectiveness of the Brazilian protected areas to preserve the rare and threatened coral snake Micrurus brasiliensis and explore the occurrence of stable habitat areas through its geographic distribution at the end of 21st century. We used ecological niche modeling to generate the potential distribution of the species in the present, and then projected its distribution to past and future climatic scenarios. We assessed whether Brazilian reserves would encompass suitable habitats in the future and proposed areas in which conservation efforts could be directed based on habitat stability (refugia) over time. Our findings show that the potential distribution of M. brasiliensis have shifted over the time, and there is an expected decrease of more than 60% in the amount of suitable areas in the future. The protected areas will contain climatically less suitable areas in the future. We strongly suggest expanding the existing reserve network as well as the creation of corridors between protected areas, allowing the dispersal of M. brasiliensis, enhancing the opportunities for preserving viable populations in the long term.

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“…Climate change effects on the phenology and interaction of some Cerrado's plants have already been suggested (Vilela, Claro, Torezan-Silingardi, & Del-Claro, 2017). The negative effect of climate change, evaluated via ENMs, has been also reported for several species of the Brazilian Cerrado realm, such as trees (Siqueira & Peterson, 2003), economical and edible plants ( de Oliveira et al, 2015;Simon et al, 2013) and fauna (Aguiar, Bernard, Ribeiro, Machado, & Jones, 2016;Diniz-Filho et al, 2009). All these studies highlighted that the southern and south-western regions of the Brazilian Cerrado will be the areas where species will tend to move or will be the most climatically stable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

Velazco

Villalobos

Galvão

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

144

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Aim The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species’ ranges outside PAs. Results We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.

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Conservation biogeography of the Cerrado's wild edible plants under climate change: Linking biotic stability with agricultural expansion

Abstract: Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs.

Cited by 24 publications

References 63 publications

Ecological niche modeling re‐examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Ecological niche modeling re‐examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Brazilian Protected Areas Under Climate Change

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

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