Conservation status of the world's skinks (Scincidae): Taxonomic and geographic patterns in extinction risk

Chapple, David G.; Roll, Uri; Böhm, Monika; Aguilar, Rocío; Amey, Andrew P.; Austin, Chris C.; Baling, Marleen; Barley, Anthony J.; Bates, Michael F.; Bauer, Aaron M.; Blackburn, Daniel G.; Bowles, Phil; Brown, Rafe M.; Chandramouli, S.; Chirio, Laurent; Cogger, Hal; Colli, Guarino R.; Conradie, Werner; Couper, Patrick J.; Cowan, Mark A.; Craig, Michael; Das, Indraneil; Datta-Roy, Aniruddha; Dickman, Chris R.; Ellis, Ryan J.; Fenner, Aaron L.; Ford, Stewart; Ganesh, S. R.; Gardner, Michael G.; Geißler, Peter; Gillespie, Graeme R.; Glaw, Frank; Greenlees, Matthew J.; Griffith, Oliver W.; Grismer, L. Lee; Haines, Margaret L.; Harris, D. James; Hedges, S. Blair; Hitchmough, Rod; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Hutchinson, Mark N.; Ineich, Ivan; Janssen, Jordi; Johnston, Greg; Karin, Benjamin R.; Keogh, J. Scott; Kraus, Fred; LeBreton, Matthew; Lymberakis, Petros; Masroor, Rafaqat; McDonald, Peter J.; Mecke, Sven; Melville, Jane; Melzer, Sabine; Michael, Damian; Miralles, Aurélien; Mitchell, Nicola J.; Nelson, Nicola J.; Nguyen, Truong Q.; Nogueira, Cristiano de Campos; Ota, Hidetoshi; Pafilis, Panayiotis; Pauwels, Olivier S. G.; Perera, Ana; Pincheira‐Donoso, Daniel; Reed, Robert N.; Ribeiro‐Júnior, Marco Antônio; Riley, Julia; Rocha, Sara; Rutherford, Pamela L.; Sadlier, Ross A.; Shacham, Boaz; Shea, Glenn M.; Shine, Richard; Slavenko, Alex; Stow, Adam J.; Sumner, Joanna; Tallowin, Oliver; Teale, Roy J.; Torres‐Carvajal, Omar; Trape, Jean François; Uetz, Peter; Ukuwela, Kanishka D. B.; Valentine, Leonie E.; Dyke, James U. Van; Winkel, Dylan van; Vasconcelos, Raquel; Vences, Miguel; Wagner, Philipp; Wapstra, Erik; While, Geoffrey M.; Whiting, Martin J.; Whittington, Camilla M.; Wilson, Steve; Ziegler, Thomas; Tingley, Reid; Meiri, Shai

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109101

Cited by 31 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…A recent analysis of the IUCN status of ca.92% of global skink fauna reinforced the need for improved data collection, estimating 14% are data-deficient, 8% remain unassessed, and with ca.95% of listings based on small geographic range, population trends for ca.43% are unknown (Chapple et al 2021). One possible avenue to address some of these gaps, especially in regions such as the GWARH that are accessible, comes from the emergence and popularity of citizen science platforms (HerpMapper 2020; Ques-taGame 2020; Rowley & Callaghan 2020;Sanderson et al 2021).…”

Section: Highlighting and Addressing Data Gapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to innate reliance on environmental temperatures, ectotherms such as reptiles are expected to be particularly susceptible to climate impacts (Bestion et al 2015;Sinervo et al 2017). Considerable effort has recently been invested into assessing extinction risk in Australian reptiles, including high-elevation endemics (IUCN 2012;Chapple et al 2019Chapple et al , 2021Tingley et al 2019;Geyle et al 2021). While assessments of cloud forest reptiles have often raised concerns due to small area of occupancy and other ongoing threats (Appendix S1), such as habitat loss and invasive species, constraints on how the IUCN Criteria assess potential future declines (IUCN 2012) meant climate change was often not incorporated in assessments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chapple et al 2021). The IUCN acknowledge these challenges, making considerable efforts to expand assessments and incorporate Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVA;Carr et al 2014;Foden & Young 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Distributional modelling, megafires and data gaps highlight probable underestimation of climate change risk for two lizards from Australia’s montane rainforests

Torkkola¹,

Chauvenet

Hines

et al. 2021

Austral Ecology

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Species endemic to high elevations are predicted to see declines in their suitable habitat under future global climate change, even in protected or little disturbed areas. However, such risks are often not included in conservation assessments, especially when appropriate models to predict climate change impacts are not available. Here, we use species distribution models to explore the likely impacts of climate change and recent megafires on the status of two high‐elevation cloud forest‐centred lizards from Australia that were listed as Least Concern in a recent (2017) IUCN Red List assessment of Australian reptiles. We found both species (Harrisoniascincus zia and Silvascincus tryoni) are predicted to lose all suitable habitat by 2050, under ‘optimistic’ future climate projections. We also found that 52.34–48.5% of H. zia modelled suitable habitat was potentially affected by recent and unprecedented megafires in eastern Australia, while only 0.02–0% of S. tryoni habitat was affected. Our results support upgrading the IUCN Red Listings of H. zia and S. tryoni to vulnerable and endangered, respectively. Our data also highlight an alarming paucity in the number of verified records for these species over the last decade, at precisely the time when these records are becoming critical to testing and validating predictions of declines. The next decade looms as a critical period to establish baseline data sets on the distribution and genetic diversity of these high‐elevation taxa. For reasonably visible and easily identifiable species such as these skinks, citizen science approaches may offer a key path to addressing this challenge.

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Section: Highlighting and Addressing Data Gapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distributional modelling, megafires and data gaps highlight probable underestimation of climate change risk for two lizards from Australia’s montane rainforests

Torkkola¹,

Chauvenet

Hines

et al. 2021

Austral Ecology

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“…Including undescribed taxa there are at least 61 extant skink species and 43 extant gecko species, all of which are endemic (Hitchmough, Barr, et al, 2016;Hitchmough, Patterson, et al, 2016). This lizard diversity is remarkable for a temperate region (Chapple, 2016;Hitchmough, Barr, et al, 2016;Hitchmough, Patterson, et al, 2016), and many species have life-history traits such as large body size, low reproductive output and late maturity that may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change (Chapple et al, 2021;Hoffmann & Sgrò, 2011;Nelson et al, 2014;Sinervo et al, 2010;Whitaker, 1978). Numerous species have experienced substantial range reductions following human settlement and the introduction of mammalian predators, while others have apparently naturally restricted distributions (Hitchmough, Barr, et al, 2016;Hitchmough, Patterson, et al, 2016;Nelson et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variable vulnerability to climate change in New Zealand lizards

Jarvie

Ingram

Chapple

et al. 2022

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim:The primary drivers of species and population extirpations have been habitat loss, overexploitation and invasive species, but human-mediated climate change is expected to be a major driver in future. To minimise biodiversity loss, conservation managers should identify species vulnerable to climate change and prioritise their protection. Here, we estimate climatic suitability for two species-rich taxonomic groups, then use phylogenetic analyses to assess vulnerability to climate change.Location: Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).Taxa: NZ lizards: diplodactylid geckos and eugongylinae skinks. Methods:We built correlative species distribution models (SDMs) for NZ geckos and skinks to estimate climatic suitability under current climate and 2070 future climate scenarios. We then used Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models (BPMMs) to assess vulnerability for both groups with predictor variables for life-history traits (body size and activity phase) and current distribution (elevation and latitude). We explored two scenarios: an unlimited dispersal scenario, where projections track climate, and a nodispersal scenario, where projections are restricted to areas currently identified as suitable.Results: SDMs projected vulnerability to climate change for most modelled lizards. For species' ranges projected to decline in climatically suitable areas, average decreases were between 42% and 46% for geckos and 33% and 52% for skinks, although area did increase or remain stable for a minority of species. For the no-dispersal scenario, the average decrease for geckos was 37%-52% and for skinks was 33%-52%. Our BPMMs showed phylogenetic signal in climate change vulnerability for both groups, with elevation increasing vulnerability for geckos, and body size reducing vulnerability for skinks.Main conclusions: New Zealand lizards showed variable vulnerability to climate change, with most species' ranges predicted to decrease. For species whose suitable climatic space is projected to disappear from within their current range, managed relocation could be considered to establish populations in regions that will be suitable under future climates.

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“…Across all analyses, small, and especially insular, distributions consistently emerge as key predictors of conservation concern. Indeed, insular areas such as the Pacific islands, Madagascar, and New Zealand have some of the most threatened biotas in the world (Carlquist 1974 ; Cheke and Hume 2008 ; Chapple et al 2021 ). Accordingly, for taxa wherein insular distributions intersect with high levels of undescribed diversity and cryptic ecologies, CER may be acute.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cryptic extinction risk in a western Pacific lizard radiation

et al. 2022

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Cryptic ecologies, the Wallacean Shortfall of undocumented species’ geographical ranges and the Linnaean Shortfall of undescribed diversity, are all major barriers to conservation assessment. When these factors overlap with drivers of extinction risk, such as insular distributions, the number of threatened species in a region or clade may be underestimated, a situation we term ‘cryptic extinction risk’. The genus Lepidodactylus is a diverse radiation of insular and arboreal geckos that occurs across the western Pacific. Previous work on Lepidodactylus showed evidence of evolutionary displacement around continental fringes, suggesting an inherent vulnerability to extinction from factors such as competition and predation. We sought to (1) comprehensively review status and threats, (2) estimate the number of undescribed species, and (3) estimate extinction risk in data deficient and candidate species, in Lepidodactylus. From our updated IUCN Red List assessment, 60% of the 58 recognized species are threatened (n = 15) or Data Deficient (n = 21), which is higher than reported for most other lizard groups. Species from the smaller and isolated Pacific islands are of greatest conservation concern, with most either threatened or Data Deficient, and all particularly vulnerable to invasive species. We estimated 32 undescribed candidate species and linear modelling predicted that an additional 18 species, among these and the data deficient species, are threatened with extinction. Focusing efforts to resolve the taxonomy and conservation status of key taxa, especially on small islands in the Pacific, is a high priority for conserving this remarkably diverse, yet poorly understood, lizard fauna. Our data highlight how cryptic ecologies and cryptic diversity combine and lead to significant underestimation of extinction risk.

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Conservation status of the world's skinks (Scincidae): Taxonomic and geographic patterns in extinction risk

Cited by 31 publications

References 34 publications

Distributional modelling, megafires and data gaps highlight probable underestimation of climate change risk for two lizards from Australia’s montane rainforests

Distributional modelling, megafires and data gaps highlight probable underestimation of climate change risk for two lizards from Australia’s montane rainforests

Variable vulnerability to climate change in New Zealand lizards

Cryptic extinction risk in a western Pacific lizard radiation

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