Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity

Abstract

Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust alternative to species-level predictions.

Habitat as Architecture: Integrating Conservation Planning and Human Health

“…In fact, new research is doing just that: using species distribution models to identify suitable areas for biofuels production . We recognize that habitat conservation for a particular species is a sometimes elusive goal, because while a biophysical arena may be preserved for future evolution, individual species may wink out as climate and other atmospheric changes accumulate (Anderson and Ferree 2010).…”

A landscape index of ecological integrity to inform landscape conservation

“…We developed an approach that has been used in several real-world applications (see below) that is distinctive in several ways. 465 First, our approach is based predominantly on geophysical settings (i.e., the geophysical stage) similar to approaches proposed by others (e.g., Anderson and Ferree 2010, Anderson et al 2014, Beier et al 2015, but modified to make limited use of the dominant biotic community as well. Specifically, we include the dominant potential life form of the vegetation in the broad suite of ecological settings variables that are used to define the biophysical setting of each cell, 470 which affects ecological similarity and resistance as incorporated into a few of the ecological integrity metrics.…”

“…Similarly, our connectedness metric uses a resistant kernel (Compton et al 2007) to represent how organisms 515 and ecological processes move across the landscape in response to environmental resistance (Zeller et al 2012). We are unaware of other approaches that adopt these specific kinds of kernel estimators to evaluate ecological integrity, although our traversability metric (which is a version of connectedness), is used as a component of The Nature Conservancy's (TNC) terrestrial resilience (Anderson and Ferree 2010).…”

“…Over time, focus has shifted from isolated reserves to interconnected reserve networks selected based on landscape ecology principles (e.g., Soulé & Terborgh 1999;Briers 2002;Cerdeira et al 2005;Beier 2012), and from single species to multi-species and, more recently, ecosystem-and geophysical-based approaches that seek to conserve "nature's stage" (e.g., Hunter et al 1988;Noss 1996;Pickett et 50 al. 1992;Anderson and Ferree 2010;Beier et al 2015;Wurtzebach and Schultz 2016). These approaches emphasize retaining representative ecological and/or geophysical settings instead of focal species, and as such provide a "coarse filter" (sensu Hunter et al 1988) for biodiversity conservation.…”

Conservation opportunities across the world's anthromes

“…Modifying conservation goals to deliver on human livelihood goals Ecosystem-based adaptation Jones et al (2012) Use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people and communities adapt to the negative effects of climate change Ecosystem services Daily et al (2009) Give 'natural capital', which produces ecosystem services, adequate weight (monetary value) in decision-making processes 3. Redefining conservation goals given global change Conserving the stage Anderson & Ferree (2011) Implement conservation in a manner that maximizes potential evolutionary adaptive response to climate change as opposed to trying to save all species or picking winners Ecological connectivity Krosby et al (2010) Soften the matrix; increase connectivity to increase probability of persistence for many organisms as climate changes Intervention ecology Hobbs et al (2011) Rather than attempt to restore past systems, reinstate the capacity for ecosystem functions and processes Managed relocation Richardson et al (2009) Save species from effects of climate change by transporting them to areas where they have not previously occurred, also termed 'assisted colonization' and 'assisted migration' Novel ecosystems Seastedt et al (2008) Recognize new combinations of species under new abiotic conditions ('novel ecosystems') and focus on desired outcomes or trajectories Realignment Millar & Brubaker (2006) Realign or entrain ecosystems with current and expected future conditions rather than restoring to historical pre-disturbance conditions 4. Enhancing conservation through community engagement Citizen science Cooper et al (2007) Involve citizen participants directly in monitoring and management of residential lands to overcome 'tyranny of small decisions' to promote biodiversity Community-based management…”