Considerations for assessing model averaging of regression coefficients

Banner, Katharine M.; Higgs, Megan D.

doi:10.1002/eap.1419

Cited by 101 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…). In part, our goal is to pre‐empt future analyses that might lead to misleading inferences about causes of western monarch declines, and to add to the set of case studies showing when to use or not to use MRMI (see also Cade , Banner and Higgs ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

Crone

Pelton

Brown

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Understanding the factors associated with declines of at‐risk species is an important first step in setting management and recovery targets. This step can be challenging when multiple aspects of climate and land use are changing simultaneously, and any or all could be contributing to population declines. We analyzed population trends of monarch butterflies in western North America in relation to likely environmental drivers. Unlike the larger eastern monarch population, past analyses of western monarchs have only evaluated the importance of climate (i.e., not land use) factors as drivers of abundance. We used partial least squares regression (PLSR) to evaluate the potential importance of changes in land use and climate variables. Trends in western monarch abundance were more strongly associated with land use variables than climate variables. Conclusions about importance of climate and land use variables were robust to changes in PLSR model structure. However, individual variables were too collinear to unambiguously separate their effects. We compared these conclusions to the more widely used technique of multiple regression, followed by multi‐model inference (MRMI). Naïve interpretation of MRMI results could be misleading, if collinearity were not taken into account. MRMI was also highly sensitive to variation in model construction. Our results suggest a two‐pronged approach to monarch conservation, specifically, starting efforts now to restore habitat, while also using experiments to more clearly delineate separate effects of climate and land use factors. They also demonstrate the utility of PLSR, a technique that is growing in use but is still relatively under‐appreciated in conservation biology.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

Crone

Pelton

Brown

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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“…To account for model‐based uncertainty with our models of EMR active season survival, and given our primary goal of prediction, we model‐averaged parameter estimates of the top 95% confidence model set (i.e., cumulative AIC c weight of models ≤0.95) (Symonds & Moussalli, ). We projected active season survival rates based on model‐averaged parameter estimates annually through 2100 using the adjusted future annual time series based on climate anomalies (Banner & Higgs, ). Thus, survival rates varied over space and time and incorporated the simulated future climate projections associated with winter minimum temperature, summer cumulative precipitation, and SPEI on an annual time‐step.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change

Naujokaitis‐Lewis

Pomara

Zuckerberg

2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species or populations at risk from global climate change, but few translate impact assessments to climate change adaptation actions. Furthermore, most climate change adaptation efforts emphasize where to implement management actions, whereas timing remains largely overlooked. The rate of modern climate change introduces urgency in evaluating whether delaying conservation actions compromises their efficacy for reaching important conservation targets. We evaluated the importance of multiple climate change adaptation strategies including timing of actions on preventing extinctions for a threatened climate‐sensitive species, the Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus). We parameterized a range‐wide population viability analysis model that related demographic sensitivities to drought events and human‐modified land cover to assess vulnerability to future climate change. Using simulations, we assessed the efficacy and trade‐offs associated with alternative climate adaptation strategies aimed at maximizing the number of future populations including when to initiate conservation actions, duration of management, number of managed populations, and local management effectiveness. Population‐level projections under future climate change scenarios revealed a broad‐scale pattern of range contraction in the southwestern portion of the current range. Along the extinction gradient, we identified demographic strongholds and refugia critical for population persistence under climate change as well as populations at high risk of extinction and candidates for climate change adaptation actions. In the context of future climate change, the timing of conservation actions was crucial; acting earlier maximized chances of achieving conservation targets. Even considering uncertainty in climate change projections, delaying actions was less efficient and introduced undesirable trade‐offs including the need to implement conservation actions for longer or targeting more populations to achieve a similar conservation target. Synthesis and applications. Our findings highlight how acting quickly reduces risk and improves outcomes for a highly vulnerable species under future climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments require translation of model‐based outputs into tractable information for climate change adaptation planning. Quantifying trade‐offs associated with the multidimensional decision space related to species conservation and recovery planning is a critical step in climate change adaptation.

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“…As the cut‐off value of ΔAICc ≤ 2 might be considered stringent, we also report the averaged estimates for models within ΔAICc ≤ 7 (see Data , but cf . Banner & Higgs, on averaging regression estimates). For red deer, the parameter estimates did not change.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term dynamics of Alpine ungulates suggest interspecific competition

et al. 2019

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Studies identifying interspecific competition require the investigation of negative long‐term effects between sympatric species showing overlap in resource use. A potential for competition exists between red deer Cervus elaphus and chamois Rupicapra spp., as revealed by the high dietary overlap observed throughout the range where the species co‐occur. Furthermore, some studies have recently reported negative demographic consequences on chamois populations living in sympatry with red deer. Using time series of counts spanning 35 years between 1984 and 2018 in the Stelvio National Park (Central Italian Alps), we tested for density dependence using state‐space models and explored the evidence of competitive interaction through Ricker‐like models on the growth rate of both species. We contrasted alternative hypotheses for the processes explaining the trends of (decreasing) chamois and (increasing) red deer populations. We expected chamois dynamics to be negatively affected by increasing deer abundance, while deer dynamics should be primarily affected by climate forcing and density dependence. We found evidence that resources were limiting for both species. In particular, growth rates were negatively affected by the synergistic effect of winter weather conditions and density dependence. The most important variable limiting the chamois population, however, was the increase in red deer numbers. The dynamics of this species was unaffected by chamois numbers. While causality cannot be inferred from the data, these results are consistent with the hypothesis of a negative effect of red deer on chamois dynamics, thus supporting the occurrence of interference or exploitation competition between sympatric mountain‐dwelling ungulates. Understanding the processes underlying temporal dynamics is pivotal for informed management of wildlife. Consequences of interspecific competition should be carefully evaluated where the populations of the weaker competitor are of conservation concern, especially in the light of the negative effects of anthropogenic environmental change on animal populations.

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Considerations for assessing model averaging of regression coefficients

Cited by 101 publications

References 41 publications

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change

Long‐term dynamics of Alpine ungulates suggest interspecific competition

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