“…For this analysis, we performed Monte-Carlo-style probabilistic assessments (n ¼ 10,000 simulations) based on the uncertainties associated with the various records. For CO 2 , CH 4 , and Antarctic temperature records (Monnin et al, 2001(Monnin et al, , 2004Loulergue et al, 2008;Lourantou et al, 2010;Stenni et al, 2010;Schmitt et al, 2012;Schneider et al, 2013;Landais et al, 2013;Parrenin et al, 2013;Ahn and Brook, 2014), we account for uncertainties associated with chronology (AICC 2012, Veres et al, 2013;Bazin et al, 2013) and proxy measurement in each record to determine the 68% (16 th e84th percentile) and 95% (2.5 th e97.5th percentile) probability intervals, the median (50 th percentile), and the probability maximum (modal value) with its 95% probability interval (e.g., Grant et al, 2012;Rohling et al, 2014;Marino et al, 2015). We probabilistically calculate greenhouse gas (GHG) components of Earth's radiative balance (DF CO2 , DF CH4 , and DF GHG ) from ice-core time series of CO 2 and/or CH 4 , referencing radiative forcing estimates to the values at AD1000 (cf.…”