Construal level theory and risky decision making following near‐miss events

Abstract

Near-miss events, which occur when failure is avoided by chance, can lead to subsequent risky decisions due to base-rate neglect. According to construal level theory, a lower level construal increases the neglect of base rates by giving more weight to case-specific information. In four studies, I empirically test the hypothesis that lowlevel construals moderate evaluations and decisions following near-miss events by increasing the reliance on case information. In Study 1, I find that a higher construal correlates with negative assessments of a project manager responsible for a nearmiss incident. In Study 2, I prime participants to have a high-or low-level construal and find that the manager evaluations in the low construal group are higher than evaluations of those in the high construal group. In Study 3, I examine whether construal levels impact decision making in personal contexts regarding natural disasters and provide evidence for the underlying mechanism of base-rate neglect. In Study 4, I show that the construal levels affect decision making given that near-miss information extends to variations in the temporal distance to near-miss information. Thus, I find support that construal levels systematically influence evaluations and decision making following near-miss events.

Reducing the Use of Disposable Plastics through Public Engagement Campaigns: An Experimental Study of the Effectiveness of Message Appeals, Modalities, and Sources

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Reference‐dependent preferences in flat penalty service‐level contracts

“…Hence, individuals with this near-miss information make riskier future decisions than those without such information. Subsequent studies have replicated this effect and have demonstrated the influence of other factors on risky decision-making following such events (Kirshner, 2021;Paine et al, 2020). From an individual perspective, near-misses have been studied as potential learning opportunities in settings such as natural disasters (Tinsley et al, 2012) and inadequate safety procedures (Dillon et al, 2016;Dillon & Tinsley, 2008).…”

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