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REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY)
May 2009
REPORT TYPE
Technical Report
DATES COVERED (From -To
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBERDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, U.S. Military Academy n/a
SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S)USMA NSC USMA Network Science Center
SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S) 09-001
DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Unlimited Distribution
SUPPLEMENTARY NOTESThe views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.
ABSTRACTThis project tests Social Network Models for longitudinal data against empirical data using an original statistical test to determine the effectiveness of various models at reproducing networks. The Link Probability Model (LPM) is introduced as a viable model for the reproduction of social networks in dynamic equilibrium. We survey social network simulation packages and find that Construct uses a continually updated LPM as its stochastic engine, further establishing the LPM's viability as a social network model. We use actor oriented models to estimate statistically significant behavior on empirical networks and provide guidance on future extensions into multi-agent simulation, which is a rapidly growing area of research. Our findings rely on various empirical datasets and provide analytical results on the nature and structure of the social networks observed in them. Social network analysis (SNA) is the mathematical methodology of quantifying connections between individuals and groups. It has become an important analytic tool for analyzing terrorist networks, friendly command and control structures, arms trade, biological warfare, and the spread of diseases, among other applications. This analysis provides a wealth of information about how individuals in a network interact with each other. Much of the power of SNA is derived from our ability to make prescriptions and predictions about network behavior. There are advanced simulation packages readily available to conduct th...