Constructing a Future Green Space Ecological Network Based on Multi-Scenario Urban Expansion: A Case Study of Chengdu, Sichuan, China

Abstract

As urban spaces expand, changes in land use significantly affect the structure and function of urban ecosystems, particularly with challenges such as green space reduction and uneven distribution. This study focused on the central urban area of Chengdu, China, simulating and forecasting various urban development scenarios for 2035, including cultivated land protection (CP), economic development (ED), ecological priority (EP), and natural development (ND). The construction of green space ecological networks followed a systematic process, incorporating key methods such as ecological source identification, landscape resistance surface construction, and ecological corridor extraction. The connectivity of these ecological networks was assessed using the space syntax. The results indicated that: (1) Construction land expanded across all scenarios, with the ED scenario having the largest area, while the EP scenario resulted in a significant increase in green space. (2) Ecological corridors were established under every scenario, with the EP scenario featuring the most extensive and well-connected network, linking urban green patches with surrounding natural areas. (3) The EP scenario’s ecological network displayed integration, choice, connectivity, and depth values that indicate the most complete and stable network structure. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of green space ecological network changes under different urban development strategies, offering valuable insights for optimizing urban green space planning and management.