Construction and validation of a COVID-19 pandemic trend forecast model based on Google Trends data for smell and taste loss

Abstract

AimTo explore the role of smell and taste changes in preventing and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, we aimed to build a forecast model for trends in COVID-19 prediction based on Google Trends data for smell and taste loss.MethodsData on confirmed COVID-19 cases from 6 January 2020 to 26 December 2021 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) website. The keywords “loss of smell” and “loss of taste” were used to search the Google Trends platform. We constructed a transfer function model for multivariate time-series analysis and to forecast confirmed cases.ResultsFrom 6 January 2020 to 28 November 2021, a total of 99 weeks of data were analyzed. When the delay period was set from 1 to 3 weeks, the input sequence (Google Trends of loss of smell and taste data) and response sequence (number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per week) were significantly correlated (P < 0.01). The transfer function model showed that worldwide and in India, the absolute error of the model in predicting the number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the following 3 weeks ranged from 0.08 to 3.10 (maximum value 100; the same below). In the United States, the absolute error of forecasts for the following 3 weeks ranged from 9.19 to 16.99, and the forecast effect was relatively accurate. For global data, the results showed that when the last point of the response sequence was at the midpoint of the uptrend or downtrend (25 July 2021; 21 November 2021; 23 May 2021; and 12 September 2021), the absolute error of the model forecast value for the following 4 weeks ranged from 0.15 to 5.77. When the last point of the response sequence was at the extreme point (2 May 2021; 29 August 2021; 20 June 2021; and 17 October 2021), the model could accurately forecast the trend in the number of confirmed cases after the extreme points. Our developed model could successfully predict the development trends of COVID-19.ConclusionGoogle Trends for loss of smell and taste could be used to accurately forecast the development trend of COVID-19 cases 1–3 weeks in advance.

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“…This led to misconceptions about the reliability of Google Flu Trends, forgetting that it have been the methodological decisions and misperceptions that caused the overestimation. More recent research clarified that the flu and various other diseases can be successfully forecasted with GT data (Chen et al, 2022;Dugas et al, 2013;Kandula & Shaman, 2019;Mavragani & Gkillas, 2020). Since then, GT data has been leveraged for forecasting exercises in numerous contexts.…”