Construction of a Nomogram for Identifying Refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia Among Macrolide-Unresponsive Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia in Children

Abstract

Objective The individualized prediction of treatment regimens of macrolide-unresponsive Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MUMPP) is scarce. The aim of this study was, therefore, to evaluate the relevant data of patients and construct a nomogram for identifying refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) among children continued to be treated with macrolide after the confirmation of MUMPP, providing a reference for the choice of treatment regimen. Methods We performed a retrospective study involving 162 children who continued to be treated with macrolide (azithromycin) after the confirmation of MUMPP without antibiotic changes between January 2020 and January 2022. We collected data on clinical feature, hospitalization period, treatments, laboratory data, extrapulmonary symptoms, parapneumonic effusion, and connections with other respiratory pathogens. In addition, the independent risk factors for RMPP were determined through univariate and multivariate analyses, and then a nomogram was constructed and validated. Results In this study, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, leukocyte count, neutrophil proportion, serum procalcitonin, and lactate dehydrogenase were independent risk factors for RMPP. Using the five independent associated factors, the nomogram for identification of RMPP was constructed. Moreover, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.925 (95% CI: 0.882–0.968) for the nomogram showing excellent discrimination. The calibration curve, close to the 45-degree line, exhibited good calibration of nomogram. Conclusion We constructed and validated a visual and user-friendly nomogram for individualized prediction of RMPP risk in children who continued to be treated with macrolide after the confirmation of MUMPP based on five variables. According to the nomogram model, continuation of macrolide should be considered rather than second-line antibiotics including tetracyclines (doxycycline or minocycline) and fluoroquinolones for MUMPP children with low predictive values.

Risk Prediction Model for Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia

“…When the cell dissolves or the cell membrane is damaged, LDH is released into the blood, so it can be used as a biomarker of tissue injury. 20 A number of previous studies 17,18,[21][22][23] have suggested the important predictive value of LDH in the poor prognosis of MPP. In our prediction model, CRP and LDH were also selected as predictors, suggesting that the immune response plays an important role in the pathogenesis of NP.…”

Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Massive Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children

“…Therefore, LDH is also often used as a predictor of severe pneumonia. 18 , 19 A retrospective analysis of NP by Li et al 11 found that CRP is an independent predictor of the degree of lung necrosis. CRP > 48.35 mg/L had a high predictive value for the diagnosis of NP, according to Qian et al 7 Zhou et al 20 found that WBC and CRP in the NP group caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae were significantly higher than those in non-NP group.…”

Azithromycin Effectiveness in Children with Mutated Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia

“…16 Macrolide-unresponsive Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MUMPP) is defined as persistent fever ≥3 days after macrolide treatment. 17 RMPP is defined as clinical and radiological deterioration despite appropriate antibiotic therapy for at least seven days. 8 Treatment failure was defined as the progression to RMPP in children with MUMPP with the A/2063/2064G mutation.…”