Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis

Li, Youzhu; Xia, Jingbo; Li, Chongguang; Zheng, Ming-Yang

doi:10.3390/su7043823

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Weather shocks disrupt the supply‐demand balance of vegetables and intensify vegetable price fluctuations. The main reason is that commercial vegetable production is spatially concentrated, while the consumer market is dispersed over the country making the vegetable supply chain susceptible to weather shocks (Ji et al, 2016; Li et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2022). When vegetable prices strongly fluctuate, households cultivating homestead gardening can shift from buying vegetables to consuming more homestead vegetables while others have to adjust their food consumption patterns.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can homestead gardens improve rural households' vegetable consumption? Evidence from three provinces in China

Deng,

van den Berg,

Heerink

et al. 2023

Agribusiness

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Vegetables play a vital role in human health. However, the average vegetable consumption among Chinese rural residents does not meet the minimum intake (300 g/adult person/day) recommended by the Chinese Dietary Guidelines. Homestead gardening—defined as growing vegetables or other food for home consumption, usually in the backyard of the household or on collectively allocated garden land—can play a significant role in promoting vegetable consumption in rural areas of developing countries. But empirical evidence on the effects of homestead gardening in China is scarce. This paper sheds new insights on the impacts of homestead gardening on rural households' vegetable consumption. We employ the three‐stage procedure instrumental variables methods to disentangle the endogeneity of the homestead garden variable and propensity score matching for robustness check. The results show that homestead gardening increases vegetable consumption by 12.7% on average. Further heterogeneous analysis shows that homestead gardening has a larger effect on those groups with vegetable intake levels in the middle of the distribution. The impact of homestead gardening was strongest for the consumption of dark‐colored vegetables. Our results can provide new perspectives for future rural planning, dietary and nutritional health transformation, and precision policy formulation. [EconLit Citations: Q1, D1, Q13].

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can homestead gardens improve rural households' vegetable consumption? Evidence from three provinces in China

Deng,

van den Berg,

Heerink

et al. 2023

Agribusiness

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“…The final selected intervals for impulse response analysis were lag 2 periods, lag 4 periods, and lag 6 periods, and the selected specific time points were the 86th, 122nd, 159th, and 195th weeks. (2) The variables in the Chinese chives TVP-VAR model were maximum and average temperature, and Chinese chives price. The optimal lag order of the model was set to 4.…”

Section: Loofah Chinese Chives and Tomato Analysis Unitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In reality, abnormal fluctuations in vegetable prices occur frequently, seriously affecting the economic interests of producers, business operators and consumers. The internal and external causes of abnormal fluctuations in vegetable prices are complex and varied, among which weather changes can affect the whole process of vegetable planting, harvesting, transportation and selling to varying degrees and impact vegetable market prices through market supply and demand mechanisms [2][3][4]. The spatial concentration of vegetable production and the dispersed consumer market in China make the vegetable supply chain more susceptible to extreme weather, causing imbalances in supply and demand in the vegetable market and thus leading to abnormal fluctuations in vegetable prices on a large scale, affecting people's livelihoods [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main contributions of this study are: (1) Explicitly established a direct link between weather factors and vegetable prices, skipping the study of the impact of weather factors on vegetable yield and quality. (2) The data for the study came from one of the main vegetable production areas of a large vegetable-producing and consuming country, so the findings of the study were more representative and referential. (3) Empirically demonstrated that there was an impact of weather changes on vegetable price fluctuations and could indicate which specific weather factors affected particular vegetable varieties and what was the proportion of the contribution of each weather factor in price fluctuations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Dynamic Impacts of Weather Changes on Vegetable Price Fluctuations in Shandong Province, China: An Analysis Based on VAR and TVP-VAR Models

Yang¹,

Cao²,

Shi³

et al. 2022

Agronomy

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In order to enrich the research on the influence of weather factors on agricultural economy and provide practical decision-making references for the relevant market entities, this study took pointed pepper, loofah, Chinese chives and tomato as examples, using weekly wholesale prices and corresponding weather factors data from one of the main production areas in China based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) and the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) models to explore the dynamic impacts of weather changes on vegetable price fluctuations. It was found that price fluctuations of specific vegetable varieties were affected by changes in specific weather factors. The shock intensity of weather factor changes in the same lag period on the current vegetable price fluctuations was time-varying, which could describe the historical dynamics of the impacts of weather changes on vegetable price fluctuations. The dissipation characteristics of the dynamic impacts of weather factors changes occurring at selected time points on vegetable price fluctuations had strong consistency, and the obtained rules could be used to analyze the life cycle and dynamic characteristics of extreme weather impacts on vegetable price fluctuations. In addition, vegetable price fluctuations were affected mostly by their own lag periods, and the shock intensity of vegetable price fluctuations with equal lag periods on their own current price fluctuations were relatively stable. The dynamic impacts of vegetable price fluctuations occurring at chosen time points on its own later fluctuations were highly consistent in the variation from the beginning of the strongest positive shock to the final dissipation.

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“…In addition, some scholars link internet public opinion with vegetable prices, and construct a combined volume through analysis of internet public opinion the mixed prediction model of product neural network and corpus, and eliminate the seasonal effect of price [41], combined with natural language processing (NLP), convolutional neural network (CNN) and classic economic methods, to carry out large-scale public opinion Subject modeling, research shows that online public opinion has an impact on the fluctuation of vegetable prices, which can be used as a potential factor in predicting vegetable prices [42]. In addition, seven indicators are selected using the ICAVP algorithm to establish a better vegetable price early warning system [43].…”

Section: Forecast and Early Warning Analysis Of Vegetable Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bibliometric Analysis of Literature on Vegetable Prices at Domestic and International Markets—A Knowledge Graph Approach

Liu

Yang

et al. 2021

Agriculture

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Vegetable prices play an important role in people’s daily lives globally. However, there is very little research that has systematically analyzed and discussed the existing research. Therefore, in order to narrow this gap in the literature, there is a need for an extensive and macro-level study of vegetable price research. By sorting out a large volume of documents, This paper presents a visual representation of the vegetable price research literature in the Web of Science and CNKI databases; it includes three perspectives of the cooperative network, co-occurrence network and co-cited network, and draws scientific knowledge map, to acquire a good understanding of the current situation of vegetable price research, hot issues, clearly shows the focus of the research, summaries the fluctuation pattern of vegetable price, deeply analyses the influencing factors of vegetable price fluctuation, and find out the connection between related scholars and the correlation existing in each research content. The results show that scholars at home and abroad have conducted research from the perspectives of vegetable price influencing factors, forecasting and early warning, and insurance systems, but they are only limited to some regions, and some vegetable varieties, and the forecasting and early warning of vegetable prices are not accurate enough, the insurance system is not perfect, and a complete price influencing mechanism has not yet been proposed. The aim of this study is to make a significant contribution to the scientific community and industry practitioners by providing a comprehensive understanding of the latest status, popular keywords and topics, and emerging areas of vegetable price research. In addition, this study will be a useful and valuable reference and guide for researchers interested in this field.

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Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis

Cited by 8 publications

References 18 publications

Can homestead gardens improve rural households' vegetable consumption? Evidence from three provinces in China

Can homestead gardens improve rural households' vegetable consumption? Evidence from three provinces in China

The Dynamic Impacts of Weather Changes on Vegetable Price Fluctuations in Shandong Province, China: An Analysis Based on VAR and TVP-VAR Models

A Bibliometric Analysis of Literature on Vegetable Prices at Domestic and International Markets—A Knowledge Graph Approach

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