Construction of an evacuee placement model for tsunami shelters considering physical distancing to prevent COVID-19 infection

Abstract

Earthquakes and tsunamis are expected to occur within the next 30 years along Japan's Nankai Trough. Existing disaster prevention plans and calculated evacuation capacities in the coastal areas that would be affected do not account for physical distancing in the context of COVID-19. Therefore, we developed a tsunami evacuation placement model incorporating physical distance guidelines for infection control and living space per person into calculations of evacuation center accommodation capacities in Aki City, Kochi Prefecture. Using available administrative, population, and tsunami inundation data, we counted and mapped evacuation centers in the estimated inundated area within three zones constructed for smooth evacuation using the ArcGIS software Build Balanced Zones Tool. We calculated the space per evacuee using the Sphere handbook standard of 3.5 m 2 or double the Sphere standard at 7 m 2 plus the recommended physical distance of 11 m 2 per person. We then compared the results with planned capacities. A total of 27 shelters are located in the area projected to be inundated at depths of 0.3–10 m, and their planned capacity, 2 m 2 for each evacuee, would accommodate 32.9% of Aki's population and result in 9639 unaccommodated evacuees. Allotting 14.5 m 2 (living space) or 18 m 2 (living space plus space to maintain physical distancing) would reduce accommodation capacities to 57.1% and 28.6% (12,133 and 12,371 unaccommodated evacuees, respectively). Given these accommodation shortages, we recommend that evacuation centers are set aside for vulnerable people and that alternative evacuation sites such as parking lots and mountain campsites are preplanned.

A multi-country comparative analysis of the impact of COVID-19 and natural hazards in India, Japan, the Philippines, and USA

“…The COVID-19 pandemic has complicated hazard evacuation and shelter management in Japan. Close physical proximity between people is a risk factor for COVID-19, and social distancing is an effective measure that prevents viral transmission [ 16 ]. The designated capacity of evacuation centers dropped to nearly one-fourth of the usual capacity to accommodate social distancing among evacuees [ 17 ].…”

Managing Compound Hazards: Impact of COVID-19 and Cases of Adaptive Governance during the 2020 Kumamoto Flood in Japan

“…Evacuation centers also had to take various preventive measures to prevent further spread of infection [13,19], following existing guidelines and the newly issued instructions from the government. The WHO [20] has pointed out that it is crucial that all preventive measures are carried out at evacuation centers, such as hand hygiene, wearing masks, social distancing, etc.…”

“…In addition to setting preventive items, social distancing is also an effective measure for preventing viral transmission [21]. However, an evacuation center is often overcrowded and there is a high risk of COVID-19 infection [19,22]. To ensure adequate social distancing in order to prevent the spread of the virus, the evacuees were asked to stay only within a makeshift designated area marked by light materials such as cardboard or plastic floor mats.…”

A Perspective towards Multi-Hazard Resilient Systems: Natural Hazards and Pandemics

“…Rajabifard et al [181] discussed the connection between pandemic, geospatial information, and community resilience. Therefore, we need to quantify how GIS-based data can be combined with information about infected populations to reduce the spread of the virus during natural hazardinduced evacuations [182][183][184].…”