Consumer Credit: a Historical Review of the Impact on the Ecuadorian Economy, Period 2005 – 2024

Abstract

Objective: Analyze consumer credit and its impact on the Ecuadorian economy, period 2005 – 2024. Theoretical Framework: The theoretical framework of the Keynesian school was used, in which the role of financial institutions is crucial for driving economic growth through the financing of consumption. Method: Quantitative research with a depth of descriptive analysis; 78 quarterly data points were used for Pearson's tests and for the simple time series regression model. Results and Discussion: The trend of consumer credit was positive during the research period; however, its economic contribution fluctuated according to the economic context or cycle. It was significant during times of boom, when it accounted for approximately 4.38% of PIB between 2011 and 2014. In contrast, during the 2005–2024 period, the results showed that it had a moderate impact on PIB, but it was not significant for economic growth, as the Ecuadorian economy operates in an imperfect competition market. Originality/Value: This study allows for the verification of the theoretical assumptions in the Ecuadorian case; additionally, it provides relevant conclusions that explain the model and characteristics of the market.