Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity

Golinelli, Roberto; Parigi, Giuseppe

doi:10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art10-en

Cited by 158 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Blanchard concluded that the consumption shock at least to some extent was caused by "animal spirits". Other VAR-based papers that subscribes to the "sentiments" view on confidence shocks include Fuhrer (1993), Farmer and Guo (1994), Matsusaka and Sbordone (1995), Chauvet and Guo (2003), Golinelli and Parigi (2004) and Ling et al (2015).…”

Section: A Brief Review Of Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Overoptimism and house price bubbles

Abildgren

Hansen

Küchler

2018

Journal of Macroeconomics

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The Working Papers of Danmarks Nationalbank describe research and development, often still ongoing, as a contribution to the professional debate. Terms of use: Documents inThe viewpoints and conclusions stated are the responsibility of the individual contributors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Danmarks Nationalbank.As a general rule, Working Papers are not translated, but are available in the original language used by the contributor. Danmarks Nationalbank's Working Papers are published in PDF format at www.nationalbanken.dk. A free electronic subscription is also available at this Web site.The subscriber receives an e-mail notification whenever a new Working Paper is published.Please direct any enquiries to Danmarks Nationalbank, Communications, Havnegade 5, DK-1093 Copenhagen K Denmark E-mail: kommunikation@nationalbanken.dkText may be copied from this publication provided that Danmarks Nationalbank is specifically stated as the source. Changes to or misrepresentation of the content are not permitted.Nationalbankens Working Papers beskriver forsknings-og udviklingsarbejde, ofte af foreløbig karakter, med henblik på at bidrage til en faglig debat.Synspunkter og konklusioner står for forfatternes regning og er derfor ikke nødvendigvis udtryk for Nationalbankens holdninger.Working Papers vil som regel ikke blive oversat, men vil kun foreligge på det sprog, forfatterne har brugt.Danmarks Nationalbanks Working Papers er tilgaengelige på www.nationalbanken.dk i pdf-format. På hjemmesiden er det muligt at oprette et gratis elektronisk abonnement, der leverer en e-mail notifikation ved enhver udgivelse af et Working Paper. ABSTRACT Overoptimism and house price bubblesThis paper explores the significance of overoptimism on house price developments in Denmark.The results indicate that house price developments historically have been partly driven by sentiments decoupled from underlying economic fundamentals, especially during strong house price booms. This underlines the need for a prudent macroeconomic stabilisation policy in periods with tight labour markets and a high degree of capacity utilisation. The paper is based on both aggregated data from the Danish Consumer Expectations Survey as well as the underlying household-level microdata behind the survey matched with administrative register data at a household level. This is the first paper that combines the use of all these three types of data. The macroeconometric part of the paper uses a stand...

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Section: A Brief Review Of Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Overoptimism and house price bubbles

Abildgren

Hansen

Küchler

2018

Journal of Macroeconomics

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“…The availability by country of such indicators is uneven: the services production index (including trade, transport and communication) is available only for Canada and Japan, while for the remaining G7 countries it is only possible to use some demand-side proxies, such as the consumption of manufactured goods (for France and Japan) and the retail sales index. Alternatively, the production of services may be proxied either by general indicators, such as survey indexes on trade and on the consumer sentiment (see Golinelli and Parigi, 2004), or by labour market indicators.…”

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confidence: 99%

The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries

Golinelli

Parigi

2007

Journal of Forecasting

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The delayed release of the National Account data for GDP is an impediment to the early understanding of the economic situation. In the short run, this information gap may be at least partially eliminated by bridge models (BM) which exploit the information content of timely updated monthly indicators. In this paper we examine the forecasting ability of BM for GDP growth in the G7 countries and compare their performance to that of univariate and multivariate statistical benchmark models. We run four alternative one-quarter-ahead forecasting experiments to assess BM performance in situations as close as possible to the actual forecasting activity. BM are estimated for GDP both for single countries (USA, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada), and area-wide (G7, European Union, and Euro area). BM forecasting ability is always superior to that of benchmark models, provided that at least some monthly indicator data are available over the forecasting horizon. Copyright Â© 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…Some authors have already empirically enquired into the interpretation of the sentiment index: for instance, Locarno and Parigi (1997) found that Italian CSI was significantly explained by socio-economic factors, providing first evidence supporting the original Katona's view. More recently, in a study on eight countries over about thirty years, Golinelli and Parigi (2004) confirm that sentiment is driven by economic as well other factors, but they found that this correlation is not homogenous across countries and may also change over time 14 . Starting from these considerations, we firstly estimate a model including only macroeconomic variables that may be considered to influence household behaviour (eq.…”

Section: Interpreting the Isae Consumer Sentiment Indicatormentioning

confidence: 97%

“…ISAE (formerly ISCO) realises the survey for Italy since 1973, at the beginning on a quarterly basis and then monthly since 1982. Survey results are often employed to provide short-term forecasts (Parigi and Schlitzer, 1997;Carnazza and Parigi, 2001) and for cyclical analysis (Bovi et al 2000;Parigi, 2004 and. Some authors have also already enquired into the theoretical interpretation of the Italian Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), finding somewhat mixed results (Locarno and Parigi, 1997).…”

Section: Movente Psicologico Fiducia E Spesa Per Consumi: Un'analisimentioning

confidence: 99%

Psychology, Consumer Sentiment and Household Expenditures: A Disaggregated Analysis

Malgarini

Margani

2005

SSRN Journal

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Analyses (ISAE) hosts the preliminary results of the research projects carried out within ISAE. The diffusion of the papers is subject to the favourable opinion of an anonymous referee, whom we would like to thank. The opinions expressed are merely the Authors' own and in no way involve the ISAE responsability.The series is meant for experts and policy-makers with the aim of submitting proposals and raising suggestions and criticism.La serie "Documenti di Lavoro" dell'Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica ospita i risultati preliminari di ricerche predisposte all'interno dell'ISAE: La diffusione delle ricerche è autorizzata previo il parere favorevole di un anonimo esperto della materia che qui si ringrazia. Le opinioni espresse nei "Documenti di Lavoro" riflettono esclusivamente il pensiero degli autori e non impegnano la responsabilità dell'Ente.La serie è destinata agli esperti e agli operatori di politica economica, al fine di formulare proposte e suscitare suggerimenti o critiche.Stampato presso la sede dell'Istituto ISAE -Piazza dell'Indipendenza, 4 -00185 Roma.Tel. +39-06444821; www.isae.it ABSTRACTThe aim of the paper is to assess the role of the Italian Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) as an autonomous driving force of consumption decisions. We test for the presence of "rule of thumb" consumers as originally proposed by Cambell and Mankiw (1991), using sentiment measures distinguished by working condition of the household. Consumption data are disaggregated according to durability. The role of sentiment results to be stronger for service expenditures. Psychological motives of employees are found to have a particularly significant influence on consumption decisions. Moreover, CSI can not be explained by economic fundamentals alone, capturing also the effects of the political cycle and exceptional circumstances.

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Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity

Abstract: The objective of this article is to reassess the validity of the consumer confidence (or sentiment) indices in anticipating the evolution of economic activity by considering a fairly high number of countries across the world (i.e.

Cited by 158 publications

References 33 publications

Overoptimism and house price bubbles

Overoptimism and house price bubbles

The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries

Psychology, Consumer Sentiment and Household Expenditures: A Disaggregated Analysis

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