Consumption, earnings risk, and payout ratios

Abstract

This paper investigates the theoretical relationship between earnings, risks and dividends, in an intertemporal context. After assuming that firms adjust their dividend payments toward a target dividend payout ratio, we utilize the framework of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) to examine the effect of systematic earnings risk on dividend policy. Our main result indicates that the dividend payout ratio of a firm is negatively related to its earnings consumption beta, obtained from the covariance between aggregate consumption and earnings. This result suggests that risk measured with earnings influences dividend policy. This result also suggests that the earnings consumption beta integrates the multiple dimensions of a firm's earnings risk.