Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model

Intihar, Marko; Kramberger, Tomaž; Dragan, Dejan

doi:10.7307/ptt.v29i5.2334

Cited by 26 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Modeling mechanisms related to the HWDA model were extensively explained in some of the previously conducted studies [14][15][16]. However, the corresponding heuristics were in previously conducted researches implemented inside the wider structure of the so-called DFM-ARIMAX model (ARIMAX model, whose inputs were the dynamic factors from the dynamic factor analysis).…”

Section: A Brief Discussion Of the Advanced Heuristics Conducted Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, we believe that in this paper, after more than a decade, some essential enhancements have been conducted with respect to the basic version of HWDA model. Some of the ideas for these improvements have been initiated due to inspiration from some of our previous studies [14][15][16]. At this place, it must be emphasized that the described modeling approach for the HWDA model is generic, which means that at least in principle, it might have been used for any similar type of forecasting in any industry, as well as in any country or cluster of countries.…”

Section: The Proposed Forecasting Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the model was derived without screening the other time series, e.g. those reflecting the US economy (macroeconomic indicators), as the Box-Jenkins ARIMAX and other similar models are capable of administering [14][15][16]69]. In the future work, we intend to somehow incorporate more concrete quantification of Melanie's influence on the US tourists' behavior, maybe by integrating of additional time series reflecting the time-dependent percentage level of her popularity among US citizens.…”

Section: Main Findings and Implications Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Forecasting US Tourists’ inflow to Slovenia by modified Holt-Winters Damped model: A case in the Tourism industry logistics and supply chains

Dragan

Keshavarzsaleh

Kramberger

et al. 2019

Logistics &Amp; Sustainable Transport

Self Cite

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Forecasting is important in many branches of logistics, including the logistics related to Tourism supply chains. With an increasing inflow of American tourists, planning and forecasting the US tourists’ inflow to Slovenia have gained far more importance attention amongst scholars and practitioners. This study, therefore, was conducted to forecast the American tourists’ inflow to Slovenia using one of the predictive models based on the exponential smoothing approach, namely Holt-Winters damped additive (HWDA) exponential smoothing method. The model was modified by several improvements, while the obtained results were generalized to other supply chain components. The results show that the forecasting system can predict well the observed inflow, while the methodology used to derive the model might have enriched the plethora of existing practical forecasting approaches in the tourism domain. Benchmarking demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms a competitive ARIMA model and official forecasts. The practical implications are also discussed in this paper.

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Section: A Brief Discussion Of the Advanced Heuristics Conducted Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Proposed Forecasting Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Main Findings and Implications Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Forecasting US Tourists’ inflow to Slovenia by modified Holt-Winters Damped model: A case in the Tourism industry logistics and supply chains

Dragan

Keshavarzsaleh

Kramberger

et al. 2019

Logistics &Amp; Sustainable Transport

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…where � 's are the adequate coefficient polynomials ∅ [55]. Similar expressions as for the ARMAX model can be derived for the ARIMAX model, except that the integrated (I) part must be additionally considered (via the differencing operator, similarly as for the ARIMA model) (see [32,60]).…”

Section: Armax and Arimax Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods and Models for Electric Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review

Hammad

Jereb

Rosi

et al. 2020

Logistics &Amp; Sustainable Transport

Self Cite

154

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Electric load forecasting (ELF) is a vital process in the planning of the electricity industry and plays a crucial role in electric capacity scheduling and power systems management and, therefore, it has attracted increasing academic interest. Hence, the accuracy of electric load forecasting has great importance for energy generating capacity scheduling and power system management. This paper presents a review of forecasting methods and models for electricity load. About 45 academic papers have been used for the comparison based on specified criteria such as time frame, inputs, outputs, the scale of the project, and value. The review reveals that despite the relative simplicity of all reviewed models, the regression analysis is still widely used and efficient for long-term forecasting. As for short-term predictions, machine learning or artificial intelligence-based models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Fuzzy logic are favored.

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“…The consolidation of volumes is essential in this respect. Intihar et al (2017) have examined the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of the container throughput forecasting model. Only then frequent connections are possible between all the hubs using all three modalities: rail, inland shipping and road.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation and evaluation of main indicators impacting synchromodality using ARTIW and AHP methods

et al. 2019

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The East-West Transport Corridor (EWTC) in the Southern part of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) has been chosen as a practical area for implementation of a novel transportation concept called synchromodality. The main expectations in developing synchromodal transport system are related to the improvement of the transport service level, modal shift and capacities utilization of transport hubs along this corridor. However, in the absence of identification of major factors influencing synchromodal system it is difficult to evaluate a potential benefit of implementation of this new transport concept. Our main goal in this paper was, on the basis of a review and using a specific questionnaire, to determine the main indicators impacting effectiveness of the synchromodal system. Compatibility of experts’ opinions was verified by using Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method. The paper will be useful for transport and logistics companies interested in moving towards synchromodal transport, as well as for future researchers. In the course of the research – using the Average Rank Transformation Into Weight (ARTIW) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods – it was determined that the normalized subjective weights of the five main criteria impacting synchromodality distributed in the following order: service quality, efficiency, infrastructure sufficiency, technical properties of terminals and interaction of technologies. In accordance with the Kendall’s concordance coefficient and consistency ratio values, expert opinions are consistent, which enabled the rankings of expert group averages and the eigenvector to take as a result of the task solution. The outcomes of the research presented in the paper have shown that service quality (transport time, service and waiting time, handling time, working hours, reliability and flexibility) is the most important indicator (criterion) impacting synchromodality. At the same time it is a big challenge for transport researchers because it requires to design and apply a qualitatively new mathematical models facilitating an establishment of an optimal synchromodal network and services along chosen transport corridor.

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Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model

Abstract: The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container through

Cited by 26 publications

References 26 publications

Forecasting US Tourists’ inflow to Slovenia by modified Holt-Winters Damped model: A case in the Tourism industry logistics and supply chains

Forecasting US Tourists’ inflow to Slovenia by modified Holt-Winters Damped model: A case in the Tourism industry logistics and supply chains

Methods and Models for Electric Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review

Investigation and evaluation of main indicators impacting synchromodality using ARTIW and AHP methods

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